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7807文章在构建一个局部均衡模型的基础上，采用150个国家（地区）2000−2014年的面板数据，实证考察了政府债务对财政支出乘数效应的影响，得到了与理论预期一致的经验证据。结果表明:（1）政府债务会显著影响财政支出的乘数效应。随着政府债务水平的提高，财政支出的乘数效应趋于减弱。尤其是在克服内生性问题之后，这一结论仍然成立；（2）政府债务作用存在显著的非线性特征。当政府债务占GDP的比重突破88%的阈值后，财政支出的乘数效应会在低债务国家和高债务国家之间发生非常迅速的逆向转换；（3）对中国这样的低债务国家，顺周期的财政政策运用是非常有效的。而对美国、希腊等已经处于高债务水平的国家，采取逆周期的财政政策才能避免潜在的经济波动风险。
政府债务会影响财政支出的乘数效应吗？——自跨国面板数据的经验证据
摘要
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引用本文
林峰, 赵焱. 政府债务会影响财政支出的乘数效应吗？——自跨国面板数据的经验证据[J]. 财经研究, 2018, 44(2): 58–74.
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