青年失业率居高不下是世界性难题,近年来在三重压力叠加的影响下,这一问题在我国也愈加突出。与此同时,我国生育率持续在低位徘徊,即使在放开“二孩”和“三孩”政策限制后依然未见明显好转。文章基于1960—2020年38个OECD成员国家的历史面板数据研究青年失业率走高和生育率走低之间是否存在某种负向关系,结果显示:青年失业率显著降低了生育率,且这一影响具有长期性和可逆性特征;青年失业率的生育抑制效应在国家之间存在差异化表现,老龄化程度越高、失业持续时间越长的国家,其生育抑制效应越明显;机制分析发现,青年群体在高失业率下工作压力加大发挥完全中介效应,相对而言,收入质量效应、收入波动效应、晚婚晚育效应等其他作用机制均没有得到实证支持。可见,生育促进政策要注重从青年群体初次就业市场的源头抓起,做好前瞻性、全局性、整体性政策布局。
面包与孩子:青年失业如何影响生育意愿——来自OECD国家的证据
摘要
参考文献
1 褚湜婧. “单独二孩”政策与青年生育[J]. 中国青年研究,2015,(2). DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-9931.2015.02.021
7 李成友, 刘安然, 袁洛琪, 等. 养老依赖、非农就业与中老年农户耕地租出——基于CHARLS三期面板数据分析[J]. 中国软科学,2020,(7). DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-9753.2020.07.011
9 刘金东, 薛一帆, 管星华. 财政信息公开为何陷入“低水平陷阱”?——基于地方标杆竞争视角的研究[J]. 公共行政评论,2019,(5). DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-2486.2019.05.002
15 Abbritti M, Fahr S. Downward wage rigidity and business cycle asymmetries[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2013,60(7):871–886. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.08.001
16 Acemoglu D, Johnson S, Robinson J, et al. Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: Volatility, crises and growth[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2003,50(1):49–123. DOI:10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00208-8
17 Albanesi S, Kim J. Effects of the COVID-19 recession on the US labor market: Occupation, family, and gender[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2021,35(3):3–24. DOI:10.1257/jep.35.3.3
18 Autor D, Dorn D, Hanson G. When work disappears: Manufacturing decline and the falling marriage market value of young men[J]. American Economic Review:Insights,2019,1(2):161–178. DOI:10.1257/aeri.20180010
19 Becker G S. An economic analysis of fertility[A]. Roberts G B. Demographic and economic change in developed countries[C]. New York: Columbia University Press, 1960: 209–240.
20 Bongaarts J, Watkins S C. Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions[J]. Population and Development Review,1996,22(4):639–682. DOI:10.2307/2137804
21 Chevalier A, Marie O. Economic uncertainty, parental selection, and children’s educational outcomes[J]. Journal of Political Economy,2017,125(2):393–430. DOI:10.1086/690830
22 Choi E J, Choi J, Son H. The long-term effects of labor market entry in a recession: Evidence from the Asian financial crisis[J]. Labour Economics,2020,67:101926. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101926
23 Conley T G, Hansen C B, Rossi P E. Plausibly exogenous[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,2012,94(1):260–272. DOI:10.1162/REST_a_00139
24 Ehrlich I, Lui F T, Francis T. Intergenerational trade, longevity, and economic growth[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1991,99(5):1029–1059. DOI:10.1086/261788
27 Genda Y, Kondo A, Ohta S. Long-term effects of a recession at labor market entry in Japan and the United States[J]. Journal of Human Resources,2010,45(1):157–196. DOI:10.1353/jhr.2010.0005
28 Hamaaki J, Hori M, Maeda S, et al. How does the first job matter for an individual's career life in Japan?[J]. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,2013,29:154–169. DOI:10.1016/j.jjie.2013.07.004
29 Hofmann B, Hohmeyer K. The effect of the business cycle at college graduation on fertility[J]. Economics of Education Review,2016,55:88–102. DOI:10.1016/j.econedurev.2016.09.004
30 Huckfeldt C. Understanding the scarring effect of recessions[J]. American Economic Review,2022,112(4):1273–1310. DOI:10.1257/aer.20160449
31 International Labour Organization (ILO). Global employment trends for youth 2020: Technology and the future of jobs[R]. Geneva: International Labour Organization, 2020: 160–161.
32 Kahn L B. The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy[J]. Labour Economics,2010,17(2):303–316. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2009.09.002
33 Kohler H P, Kohler I. Fertility decline in Russia in the early and mid 1990s: The role of economic uncertainty and labour market crises[J]. European Journal of Population,2002,18(3):233–262. DOI:10.1023/A:1019701812709
34 Liepmann H. The impact of a negative labor demand shock on fertility - evidence from the fall of the Berlin Wall[J]. Labour Economics,2018,54:210–224. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2018.07.003
35 Maclean J C, Covington R, Kessler A S. Labor market conditions at school-leaving: Long-run effects on marriage and fertility[J]. Contemporary Economic Policy,2016,34(1):63–88. DOI:10.1111/coep.12113
36 Oreopoulos P, von Wachter T, Heisz A. The short- and long-term career effects of graduating in a recession[J]. American Economic Journal:Applied Economics,2012,4(1):1–29. DOI:10.1257/app.4.1.1
37 Oyer P. Initial labor market conditions and long-term outcomes for economists[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2006,20(3):143–160. DOI:10.1257/jep.20.3.143
38 Prettner K, Strulik H. Gender equity and the escape from poverty[J]. Oxford Economic Papers,2017,69(1):55–74. DOI:10.1093/oep/gpw043
39 Vignoli D, Mencarini L, Alderotti G. Is the effect of job uncertainty on fertility intentions channeled by subjective well-being?[J]. Advances in Life Course Research,2020,46:100343. DOI:10.1016/j.alcr.2020.100343
40 Wood J, Neels K. First a job, then a child? Subgroup variation in women’s employment-fertility link[J]. Advances in Life Course Research,2017,33:38–52. DOI:10.1016/j.alcr.2016.09.003
引用本文
刘金东, 王佳慧, 唐诗涵. 面包与孩子:青年失业如何影响生育意愿——来自OECD国家的证据[J]. 上海财经大学学报, 2022, 24(4): 138-152.
导出参考文献,格式为:
上一篇:外国人在华就业法律规制的完善