金融发展、资本账户开放与金融不稳定——来自中国的证据
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财经研究 2007 年 第 33 卷第 11 期, 页码：42 - 53
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章建立一个由金融发展程度、资本账户开放与金融不稳定指标组成的向量自回归(VAR)模型,利用中国1982~2005年的年度数据对这些变量的长期协整关系和短期的调整动力学进行相关的时间序列分析。模型的估计结果显示,对于中国来说,金融发展程度、资本账户开放和金融不稳定之间存在着长期的协整关系,但三者之间的影响程度和方向各不相同。所有结果均显示,无论从短期和长期看,金融发展程度对一国的金融稳定具有显著影响,对资本账户开放的进程也具有重要的影响。
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[3]Aghion,Bacchetta.Capital markets and the instability of open economies[R].CEPRDiscussion Paper,1999(2083).
[4]Grilli V,Milesi-Ferretti G M.Economic effects and structural determinants of capitalcontrols[R].IMF Staff Papers,1995,42(3):517~551.
[5]Gruben W C,McLeod D.Capital account liberalization and inflation[J].EconomicsLetters,Elsevier,2002,77(2):221~225.
[6]Henry P B.Do stock market liberalization cause investment booms?[J].Journal of Fi-nancial Economics,2000,58(1~2)(October):301~334.
[7]Johansen S.Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors[J].Journal of Economic Dy-namics and Control,1988,12:231~254.
[8]Johansen S.Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,1995.
[9]Kaminsky G L,Schmukler S L.Short-run pain,Long-run gain:The effects of financialliberalization[R].Policy Research Working Paper Series,2002,No.2912,The WorldBank.
[10]King R G,Levine R.Finance and growth:Schumpeter might be right[J].The Quar-terly Journal of Economics,MIT Press,1993,108(3):717~737.
[11]Klein M,G Olivei.Capital account liberalization,financial depth and economic growth[R].Mimeo(Medford,MA:Tufts),2001.
[12]Laurenceson J,K K Tang.China’s capital account convertibility and financial stability[R].EAERG Discussion Paper,2005.
引用本文
李巍. 金融发展、资本账户开放与金融不稳定——来自中国的证据[J]. 财经研究, 2007, 33(11): 42–53.
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