收入不平等和中国经常账户失衡问题研究
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财经研究 2015 年 第 41 卷第 07 期, 页码：
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章通过理论分析和实证分析论证了收入不平等和中国经常账户失衡的数量关系。首先构建了收入不平等和经常账户关系的两期模型，研究表明：低收入人群的跨期消费决策受到参照群体(高消费群体)消费外部性的影响，且这种影响随着收入不平等程度的增加而增加；同时，收入不平等对经常账户的影响与金融发展程度相关。随着收入不平等程度的增加，金融发展程度越高，经常账户越容易产生赤字；当金融发展程度较低时，低收入人群获得自由借贷的范围和水平受到限制，普遍推迟当前消费，进而导致经常账户盈余。文章还基于中国1980-2012年的统计数据，采用GMM估计方法对收入不平等和经常账户的关系进行了实证研究，结果表明：收入不平等是造成中国经常账户失衡的重要影响因素；收入不平等对中国经常账户的影响还受制于中国的金融发展水平。
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［2］沈坤荣，谢勇.不确定性与中国城镇居民储蓄率的实证研究［J］.金融研究,2012,(3):1-13.
[3]谭之博，赵岳.银行集中度、企业储蓄与经常账户失衡［J］.经济研究,2012,(12):55-68.
［4］翟晓英，刘维奇，居民消费能力视角下的中国经常账户顺差影响因素协整分析［J］. 财经研究,2012,(3):26-36.
［5］翟晓英，刘维奇.中国经常账户失衡问题研究——基于金融发展程度-消费-经常账户路径［J］.国际金融研究,2012,(8):38-49.
［6］朱超，张林杰. 人口结构能解释经常账户平衡吗？［J］.金融研究,2012,(5):30-44.
［7］Aguiar M,Bils M. Has consumption inequality mirrored income inequality［R］. NBER Working Paper No. 16807, 2012.
［8］Al hussami F，Remesal M . Current account imbalances and income inequality: Theory and evidence［J］. Working Paper No.459, 2012.
［9］Atkinson A, Piketty T，Saez E.Top incomes in the long run of history［J］. Journal of Economic Association, 2011, 49(1) : 3-71.
［10］Beck T, DemirgüKunt A, Maksimovic V. Financial and legal constraints to growth: Does firm size matter? ［J］.Journal of Finance, 2005，60（1）:137-177.
［11］Bertrand M, Morse A. Trickledown consumption［J］. NBER Working Paper No. 18883,2013.
［12］Caballero R J , Farhi E,Gourinchas PO. An equilibrium model of “global imbalances” and low interest rates［J］. American Economic Review, 2008,98(1): 358-393.
［13］Chinn M，Prasad E. Mediumterm determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: An empirical exploration［J］. Journal of International Economics, 2003, 59(1): 47-76.
［14］Chinn M，Ito H. Current account balances, financial development and institutions:Assaying the world “saving glut” ［J］.Journal of International Money and Finance, 2007, 26(4): 546-569
［15］Chinn M，Ito H.Global current account imbalances: American fiscal policy versus East Asian savings［J］. Review of International Economics, 2008,16(3): 479-498.
［16］Galor O, Zeira J. Income distribution and macroeconomics［J］. The Review of Economic Studies, 1993，60(1):35-52.
［17］Garriga C. Overconsumption, reference groups, and equilibrium efficiency［J］. Economics Letters, 2006, 91(3): 420-424.
［18］Geithner T. Policy implications of global imbalances［R］.Remarks at the Global Financial Imbalances Conference at Chatham House, 2006.
［19］Georgarakos D, Haliassos M, Pasini G.Household debt and social interaction［J］. Review of Financial Studies, 2014,27(5): 1404-1433.
［20］Gomez M A. Consumption and leisure externalities, economic growth and equilibrium efficiency［J］. Scottish Journal of Political Economy ,2008, 55(2): 227-249.
［21］Gourinchas PO, Rey H.International financial adjustment［J］.Journal of Political Economy, 2007, 115(4): 665-703.
［22］Greenwood J, Jovanovic B. Financial development, growth and the distribution of income［J］. Journal of Political Economy, 1990，98(5):1076-1107.
［23］Gruber J，Kamin S. Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances［J］. Journal of International Money and Finance，2007,26(4):500-522.
［24］Huang R J，Tzeng L Y.Consumption externality and equilibrium underinsurance［J］. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2008,75(4):1039-1054.
［25］Kumhof M, Rancière R，Winant P.Inequality, leverage and crises［J］. IMF Working Papers No.10/268,2010.
［26］Kumhof M,Lebarz C,Rancière R, et al. income inequality and current account imbalances［J］.IMF Working Paper No.12/8，2012
［27］Mann C L. Is the U.S. trade deficit sustainable?［J］. Journal of International Economics, 2000, 52(2):405-407.
［28］Mendoza E G., Quadrini V, RiosRull JV. Financial integration financial deepness and global imbalances［J］. NBER Working Paper No. 12909,2006.
［29］Nason J M, Rogers J H.Investment and current account in the short run and the long run［J］. International Finance Working Paper No.647,1999.
［30］Prasad E, Rogoff K,Wei SJ，Kose M A. Financial globalization, growth and volatility in developing countries［J］.NBER Working Paper No.10942, 2003.
［31］Rajan R，Lines F，How hidden fractures still threaten the world economy［M］. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010.
［32］Summers L H. The US current account deficit and the global economy［R］.Per Jacobsson Lecture,2004.
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翟晓英, 翟晓鸣. 收入不平等和中国经常账户失衡问题研究[J]. 财经研究, 2015, 41(7): 0.
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