实际汇率与就业——基于内生劳动力供给的跨期均衡分析
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财经研究 2006 年 第 32 卷第 04 期, 页码：15 - 26
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章在个体跨期最优模型中引入内生劳动力供给,并同时假定对资本流动存在限制,以此来分析实际汇率变动对就业的影响。结果发现:只有当消费者对商品消费的相对风险规避程度比较大,即消费的跨期替代弹性比较小时,本币实际贬值才会促进就业的增加,反之贬值会使就业减少。考虑到中国当前的具体情况,消费者商品消费的相对风险规避程度会比较大,因而人民币实际贬值会有利于就业。对中国的实证分析支持了这一结论,且该实证分析通过了实际汇率的超外生性检验。鉴于从长期来看中国消费者的相对风险规避程度有下降的趋势,过分的依赖于低币值的汇率政策来解决失业问题是不可行的。
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[3]Belke Ansgar,Daniel Gros.Designing EU-US atlantic monetary relations:Exchangerate variability and labor markets[J].World Economy,2002,23:789~813.
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[7]Frenkel Roberto.Real exchange rate and employment in Argentina,Brazil,Chile,andMexico[R].Paper Prepared for the Group of 24,Washington,D.C.,September 2004.
[8]Hall Robert E.Labor supply and aggregate fluctuations[R].Carnegie-Rochester Con-ference Series on Public Policy,1980,(1):7~33.
[9]Heckman James J.What has been learned about labor supply in the past twenty years[J].American Economic Review,1993,83:116~121.
[10]Jo~ao Ricardo Faria,Miguel A León-Ledesma.Real exchange rate and employment per-formance in an open economy[J].Research in Economics,Elsevier,2005,59(1):67~80.
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[12]Johansen S.Determination of cointegration rank in the presence of a linear trend[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1992,54:383~397.
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[15]Lucas Robert E.Econometric policy evaluation:A critique[R].Carnegie-RochesterConference Series on Public,1976,1:19~46.
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[21]顾六宝,肖红叶.中国消费跨期替代弹性的两种估算方法[J].统计研究,2004,(9):8~11.
[22]万解秋,徐涛.汇率调整对中国就业的影响———基于理论与经验的研究[J].经济研究,2004,(2):39~46
[23]俞乔.论我国汇率政策与国内目标的冲突及协调[J].经济研究,1999,(7):23~32.The Real Exchange Rate and Employment———An Analysis of the Inter-temporal Equilibrium withEndogenous Labor Supply IncorporatedE Yong-jian1,DING Jian-ping2(1.School of Economics and Management,Shenyang NormalUniversity,Shenyang110034,China;2.Research Center for Modern Finance,Shanghai University of Financeand Economics,Shanghai200433,China)
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鄂永健, 丁剑平. 实际汇率与就业——基于内生劳动力供给的跨期均衡分析[J]. 财经研究, 2006, 32(4): 15–26.
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