实际汇率与就业——基于内生劳动力供给的跨期均衡分析
5371 
4078
财经研究 2006 年 第 32 卷第 04 期, 页码：15 - 26
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章在个体跨期最优模型中引入内生劳动力供给,并同时假定对资本流动存在限制,以此来分析实际汇率变动对就业的影响。结果发现:只有当消费者对商品消费的相对风险规避程度比较大,即消费的跨期替代弹性比较小时,本币实际贬值才会促进就业的增加,反之贬值会使就业减少。考虑到中国当前的具体情况,消费者商品消费的相对风险规避程度会比较大,因而人民币实际贬值会有利于就业。对中国的实证分析支持了这一结论,且该实证分析通过了实际汇率的超外生性检验。鉴于从长期来看中国消费者的相对风险规避程度有下降的趋势,过分的依赖于低币值的汇率政策来解决失业问题是不可行的。
[1]Altonji Joseph G.The intertemporal substitution model of labor market fluctuations:Anempirical analysis[J].Review of Economic Studies,1982,49:783~824.
[2]Andrews Martyn,Stephen J Nickell.Unemployment in the United Kingdom since thewar[J].Review of Economic Studies,1982,49:731~759.
[3]Belke Ansgar,Daniel Gros.Designing EU-US atlantic monetary relations:Exchangerate variability and labor markets[J].World Economy,2002,23:789~813.
[4]Burgess S,Michael M Knetter.An international comparison of employment adjustmentto exchange rate fluctuations[R].NBER Working Paper 5861,1998.
[5]Davidson J E H,Hendry D F,Frank Srba,et al.Econometric modeling of the aggre-gate time-series relationship between consumer’s expenditure and income in the UnitedKingdom[J].Economic Journal,1978,88:661~692.
[6]Engel R F,Hendry D F.Testing super exogeneity and invariance in regression models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1993,56:119~139.
[7]Frenkel Roberto.Real exchange rate and employment in Argentina,Brazil,Chile,andMexico[R].Paper Prepared for the Group of 24,Washington,D.C.,September 2004.
[8]Hall Robert E.Labor supply and aggregate fluctuations[R].Carnegie-Rochester Con-ference Series on Public Policy,1980,(1):7~33.
[9]Heckman James J.What has been learned about labor supply in the past twenty years[J].American Economic Review,1993,83:116~121.
[10]Jo~ao Ricardo Faria,Miguel A León-Ledesma.Real exchange rate and employment per-formance in an open economy[J].Research in Economics,Elsevier,2005,59(1):67~80.
[11]Johansen S.Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian vec-tor autoregressive models[J].Econometrica,1991,59:1551~1580.
[12]Johansen S.Determination of cointegration rank in the presence of a linear trend[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1992,54:383~397.
[13]Linda Goldberg,Joseph Tracy.Exchange rates and wages[R].NBER Working Paper8137,February,2001.
[14]Lucas Robert E Jr,Leonard A Rapping.Real wages,employment and inflation[J].Journal of Political Economy,1969,77:721~754.
[15]Lucas Robert E.Econometric policy evaluation:A critique[R].Carnegie-RochesterConference Series on Public,1976,1:19~46.
[16]Mankiw N Gregory,Julio J Rotemberg,Lawrence H Summers.Intertemporal substi-tution in macroeconomics[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1985,100(2):225~251.
[17]Maurice Obstfeld,Kenneth Rogoff.The intertemporal approach to the current account[R].NBER Working Paper 4893,October,1994.
[18]Michael W Klein,Scott Schuh,Robert K Triest.Job creation,job destruction and thereal exchange rate[R].NBER Working Paper 7466,January,2000.
[19]William H Branson,James P Love.The real exchange rate and employment in U.S.manufacturing:State and regional results[R].NBER Working Paper 2435,November,1987.
[20]范言慧,宋旺.实际汇率对就业的影响———对中国制造业总体的经验分析[J].世界经济,2005,(4):3~12.
[21]顾六宝,肖红叶.中国消费跨期替代弹性的两种估算方法[J].统计研究,2004,(9):8~11.
[22]万解秋,徐涛.汇率调整对中国就业的影响———基于理论与经验的研究[J].经济研究,2004,(2):39~46
[23]俞乔.论我国汇率政策与国内目标的冲突及协调[J].经济研究,1999,(7):23~32.The Real Exchange Rate and Employment———An Analysis of the Inter-temporal Equilibrium withEndogenous Labor Supply IncorporatedE Yong-jian1,DING Jian-ping2(1.School of Economics and Management,Shenyang NormalUniversity,Shenyang110034,China;2.Research Center for Modern Finance,Shanghai University of Financeand Economics,Shanghai200433,China)
[2]Andrews Martyn,Stephen J Nickell.Unemployment in the United Kingdom since thewar[J].Review of Economic Studies,1982,49:731~759.
[3]Belke Ansgar,Daniel Gros.Designing EU-US atlantic monetary relations:Exchangerate variability and labor markets[J].World Economy,2002,23:789~813.
[4]Burgess S,Michael M Knetter.An international comparison of employment adjustmentto exchange rate fluctuations[R].NBER Working Paper 5861,1998.
[5]Davidson J E H,Hendry D F,Frank Srba,et al.Econometric modeling of the aggre-gate time-series relationship between consumer’s expenditure and income in the UnitedKingdom[J].Economic Journal,1978,88:661~692.
[6]Engel R F,Hendry D F.Testing super exogeneity and invariance in regression models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1993,56:119~139.
[7]Frenkel Roberto.Real exchange rate and employment in Argentina,Brazil,Chile,andMexico[R].Paper Prepared for the Group of 24,Washington,D.C.,September 2004.
[8]Hall Robert E.Labor supply and aggregate fluctuations[R].Carnegie-Rochester Con-ference Series on Public Policy,1980,(1):7~33.
[9]Heckman James J.What has been learned about labor supply in the past twenty years[J].American Economic Review,1993,83:116~121.
[10]Jo~ao Ricardo Faria,Miguel A León-Ledesma.Real exchange rate and employment per-formance in an open economy[J].Research in Economics,Elsevier,2005,59(1):67~80.
[11]Johansen S.Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian vec-tor autoregressive models[J].Econometrica,1991,59:1551~1580.
[12]Johansen S.Determination of cointegration rank in the presence of a linear trend[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1992,54:383~397.
[13]Linda Goldberg,Joseph Tracy.Exchange rates and wages[R].NBER Working Paper8137,February,2001.
[14]Lucas Robert E Jr,Leonard A Rapping.Real wages,employment and inflation[J].Journal of Political Economy,1969,77:721~754.
[15]Lucas Robert E.Econometric policy evaluation:A critique[R].Carnegie-RochesterConference Series on Public,1976,1:19~46.
[16]Mankiw N Gregory,Julio J Rotemberg,Lawrence H Summers.Intertemporal substi-tution in macroeconomics[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1985,100(2):225~251.
[17]Maurice Obstfeld,Kenneth Rogoff.The intertemporal approach to the current account[R].NBER Working Paper 4893,October,1994.
[18]Michael W Klein,Scott Schuh,Robert K Triest.Job creation,job destruction and thereal exchange rate[R].NBER Working Paper 7466,January,2000.
[19]William H Branson,James P Love.The real exchange rate and employment in U.S.manufacturing:State and regional results[R].NBER Working Paper 2435,November,1987.
[20]范言慧,宋旺.实际汇率对就业的影响———对中国制造业总体的经验分析[J].世界经济,2005,(4):3~12.
[21]顾六宝,肖红叶.中国消费跨期替代弹性的两种估算方法[J].统计研究,2004,(9):8~11.
[22]万解秋,徐涛.汇率调整对中国就业的影响———基于理论与经验的研究[J].经济研究,2004,(2):39~46
[23]俞乔.论我国汇率政策与国内目标的冲突及协调[J].经济研究,1999,(7):23~32.The Real Exchange Rate and Employment———An Analysis of the Inter-temporal Equilibrium withEndogenous Labor Supply IncorporatedE Yong-jian1,DING Jian-ping2(1.School of Economics and Management,Shenyang NormalUniversity,Shenyang110034,China;2.Research Center for Modern Finance,Shanghai University of Financeand Economics,Shanghai200433,China)
引用本文
鄂永健, 丁剑平. 实际汇率与就业——基于内生劳动力供给的跨期均衡分析[J]. 财经研究, 2006, 32(4): 15–26.
导出参考文献，格式为：
上一篇：产品差异、转移成本和市场竞争
下一篇：内生技术进步、南北贸易与干预政策
