11497 
8083企业生命周期中商业模式是不断变动的，本文借用实物期权博弈模型，解决不确定条件下商业模式创新或模仿策略选择问题。由于商业模式创新很难实现专利保护，模仿将难以避免。两期二叉树博弈分析结果表明：商业模式创新和模仿的价值只和企业市场份额α和基期基准倍数I（基期基准现金流与商业模式创新投入比值，表示项目初期的收益率）有关，当基期基准倍数很高且企业份额相差不大时，两个企业都进行商业模式创新是最优选择；当基期基准倍数中等且企业份额相差不大时，有可能出现小企业商业模式创新，大企业模仿的均衡策略组合；当基期基准倍数不低且企业份额相差较大时，则会出现大企业创新，小企业模仿的“智猪博弈”；当基期基准倍数较小时，大、小企业都不会有进行商业模式创新的动机。所以，理论上回答了商业模式创新或模仿的理性选择依据，指出商业模式创新与否要根据企业所处的市场竞争格局和项目初期收益率进行综合考量；拓展了实物期权博弈模型在商业模式创新价值评估中的应用，对企业从事商业模式创新具有重要现实指导意义。
商业模式需要创新还是模仿？——基于实物期权博弈的策略研究
摘要
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引用本文
刘志迎, 周章庆, 陈明春, 等. 商业模式需要创新还是模仿？——基于实物期权博弈的策略研究[J]. 外国经济与管理, 2018, 40(3): 79-91.
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