现阶段,人口老龄化使得中国社会保险基金支付压力不断提高。为缓解老龄化程度并解决其带来的相关问题,中国出台“全面二孩”政策以替代原有的“单独二孩”政策。文章以城镇职工医保为例,运用精算模型定量评估“全面二孩”政策对统筹基金的影响,研究发现:(1)按照现行制度模式,如果继续执行“单独二孩”政策,统筹基金将于2040年出现累计赤字,2065年累计赤字约为62.44万亿元;(2)实施“全面二孩”政策后,在不同生育意愿下,统筹基金出现累计赤字的时点没有发生变化,但2065年累计赤字下降5.33%-40.73%;(3)进一步,如果自2022年起退休年龄每年延迟6个月直至达到65岁,在不同“全面二孩”生育意愿下,统筹基金出现累计赤字的时点将推迟7-25年,2065年累计赤字随之降低63.59%-98.99%。可见,“全面二孩”政策能降低城镇职工医保统筹基金的累计赤字,为促进其可持续发展,可与延迟退休年龄等政策同步实施。
“全面二孩”政策对城镇职工医保统筹基金的影响:改善抑或恶化
摘要
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引用本文
曾益, 凌云, 张心洁. “全面二孩”政策对城镇职工医保统筹基金的影响:改善抑或恶化[J]. 上海财经大学学报, 2017, 19(5): 52–63.
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