4835 
3393近年来，贸易政策不确定性大幅上升，分析贸易政策不确定性(Trade Policy Uncertainty, TPU)对国际贸易结构的影响至关重要。文章利用双边关税数据和反倾销调查数据构建适用于服务贸易的贸易政策不确定性指数，并在此基础上分析贸易政策不确定性对国际贸易结构的影响。实证结果显示，贸易政策不确定性改变了国际贸易结构，即贸易政策不确定性虽抑制了货物贸易，却显著促进了服务业出口。分行业研究表明，贸易政策不确定性对服务业出口的影响不存在行业异质性，对生产性服务贸易、消费性服务贸易和公共服务贸易都有正向促进作用。服务业出口随空间的扩张而下降，随时差的增加而提高。贸易政策不确定性通过生产率、制度和创新三条渠道影响服务业出口。当贸易政策不确定性升高时，生产率的提升和市场化改革会有效促进服务业出口；当贸易政策不确定性下降时，创新能力的提升会促进服务业出口。文章揭示了贸易政策不确定性的贸易偏向效应，为中国应对贸易政策不确定性上升和发展服务贸易提供了新思路。
贸易政策不确定性冲击的贸易偏向效应研究
摘要
参考文献
1 陈启斐, 范超. 全球化、经济波动与双边服务贸易——基于扩展的引力模型分析[J]. 当代经济科学,2013,(6). DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2848.2013.06.005
8 Anderson E. Time differences, communication and trade: Longitude matters II[J]. Review of World Economics,2014,150(2):337–369. DOI:10.1007/s10290-013-0179-9
10 Baker S R, Bloom N, Davis S J. Measuring economic policy uncertainty[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(4):1593–1636. DOI:10.1093/qje/qjw024
11 Beverelli C, Fiorini M, Hoekman B. Services trade policy and manufacturing productivity: The role of institutions[J]. Journal of International Economics,2017,104:166–182. DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.11.001
12 Bloom N, Floetotto M, Jaimovich N, et al. Really uncertain business cycles[J]. Econometrica,2018,86(3):1031–1065. DOI:10.3982/ECTA10927
13 Breinlich H, Criscuolo C. International trade in services: A portrait of importers and exporters[J]. Journal of International Economics,2011,84(2):188–206. DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.03.006
14 Caballero J, Candelaria C, Hale G. Bank linkages and international trade[J]. Journal of International Economics,2018,115:30–47. DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.08.006
15 Cafiso G. Sectoral border effects and the geographic concentration of production[J]. Review of World Economics,2011,147(3):543–566. DOI:10.1007/s10290-011-0091-0
16 Carballo J, Handley K, Limão N. Economic and policy uncertainty: Export dynamics and the value of agreements[R]. NBER Working Paper No. w24368, 2018.
17 Chaney T. The gravity equation in international trade: An explanation[J]. Journal of Political Economy,2018,126(1):150–177. DOI:10.1086/694292
18 Crowley M, Meng N, Song H S. Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms[J]. Journal of International Economics,2018,114:96–115. DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.05.003
19 Dibiasi A, Abberger K, Siegenthaler M, et al. The effects of policy uncertainty on investment: Evidence from the unexpected acceptance of a far-reaching referendum in switzerland[J]. European Economic Review,2018,104:38–67. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.01.002
21 Feng L, Li Z Y, Swenson D L. Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from China’s WTO accession[J]. Journal of International Economics,2017,106:20–36. DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.12.009
22 Fiorini M, Hoekman B, Malgouyres C. Services policy reform and manufacturing employment: Evidence from transition economies[J]. The World Economy,2018,41(9):2320–2348. DOI:10.1111/twec.12710
23 Francois J, Hoekman B. Services trade and policy[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,2010,48(3):642–692. DOI:10.1257/jel.48.3.642
24 Francois J, Manchin M, Tomberger P. Services linkages and the value added content of trade[J]. The World Economy,2015,38(11):1631–1649. DOI:10.1111/twec.12307
25 Fryges H, Vogel A, Wagner J. The impact of R&D activities on exports of German business services enterprises: First evidence from a continuous treatment approach[J]. The World Economy,2015,38(4):716–729. DOI:10.1111/twec.12177
26 Gootiiz B, Mattoo A. Regionalism in services: A study of ASEAN[J]. The World Economy,2017,40(3):574–597. DOI:10.1111/twec.12328
27 Guillin A. Trade in services and regional trade agreements: Do negotiations on services have to be specific?[J]. The World Economy,2013,36(11):1406–1423. DOI:10.1111/twec.12102
28 Hahn E D, Bunyaratave J K. Services cultural alignment in offshoring: The impact of cultural dimensions on offshoring location choices[J]. Journal of Operations Management,2010,28(3):186–193. DOI:10.1016/j.jom.2009.10.005
29 Haller S A, Damijan J, Kaitila V, et al. Trading firms in the services sectors: Comparable evidence from four EU countries[J]. Review of World Economics,2014,150(3):471–505. DOI:10.1007/s10290-014-0190-9
30 Handley K. Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence[J]. Journal of International Economics,2014,94(1):50–66. DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.05.005
31 Handley K, Limão N. Policy Uncertainty, trade, and welfare: Theory and evidence for China and the United States[J]. American Economic Review,2017,107(9):2731–2783. DOI:10.1257/aer.20141419
32 Head K, Mayer T, Ries J. How remote is the offshoring threat?[J]. European Economic Review,2009,53(4):429–444. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2008.08.001
33 Hoekman B, Shepherd B. Services productivity, trade policy and manufacturing exports[J]. The World Economy,2017,40(3):499–516. DOI:10.1111/twec.12333
34 Hummels D, Jørgensen R, Munch J, et al. The wage effects of offshoring: Evidence from Danish matched worker-firm data[J]. American Economic Review,2014,104(6):1597–1629. DOI:10.1257/aer.104.6.1597
35 Kimura F, Lee H H. The gravity equation in international trade in services[J]. Review of World Economics,2006,142(1):92–121. DOI:10.1007/s10290-006-0058-8
36 Mainardes E W, Funchal B, Soares J. The informatics technology and innovation in the service production[J]. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2017,43:27–38. DOI:10.1016/j.strueco.2017.06.004
38 Melitz M J. The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity[J]. Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695–1725. DOI:10.1111/1468-0262.00467
39 Steinberg P J, Procher V D, Urbig D. Too much or too little of R&D offshoring: The impact of captive offshoring and contract offshoring on innovation performance[J]. Research Policy,2017,46(10):1810–1823. DOI:10.1016/j.respol.2017.08.008
40 Zahler A, Iacovone L, Mattoo A. Trade and innovation in services: Evidence from a developing economy[J]. The World Economy,2014,37(7):953–979. DOI:10.1111/twec.12117
引用本文
陈启斐, 张晨, 岳中刚. 贸易政策不确定性冲击的贸易偏向效应研究[J]. 上海财经大学学报, 2022, 24(4): 33-46.
导出参考文献，格式为：
