4244 
4179在宏观经济下行阶段，中国经济的结构性问题逐渐凸显，非金融类企业的杠杆率居高不下俨然已成为供给侧结构性改革的重点所在。文章利用2003−2018年中国非金融上市公司为研究样本，系统分析了汇率政策不确定性对企业杠杆率的驱动逻辑，并重点考察了其中的传导机制。实证结果显示，汇率政策不确定性的增加倾向于提高企业杠杆率，且汇率政策不确定性每增加10%，企业杠杆率则平均增加20%；在替换核心指标、改变模型设定和控制内生性问题后，上述结论依然稳健。进一步的异质性分析表明，上述效应在融资约束较低、涉外业务、低生产率和低成长性的企业中尤为凸显。机制分析则表明，汇率政策不确定性会通过引发国际资本流动、降低投资效率并加剧风险承担而提升企业杠杆率，且国际资本流动占据主导作用。上述研究结果说明，汇率政策的频繁调整会对企业去杠杆造成不利冲击，因此当前的汇率政策调整，应保持相对的稳定性和合理预期，充分发挥各类政策的联合调控作用，从而完善汇率政策调控体系并弱化政策不确定性的形成机制，以利于结构性去杠杆并防范系统性风险。
汇率政策不确定性与企业杠杆率
摘要
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引用本文
司登奎, 赵冰, 刘喜华, 等. 汇率政策不确定性与企业杠杆率[J]. 财经研究, 2020, 46(12): 124-137.
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