银行风险承担具有金融稳定器作用。除了表内业务的风险承担意愿和贷款规模外,我国银行的风险承担还可能体现在表外影子银行规模调整上。文章以2012年至2018年我国上市企业季度数据为样本,研究了经济政策不确定性如何影响银行风险承担进而影响企业投资行为。研究发现,从表内业务来看,经济政策不确定性促使银行放宽贷款审批条件,增加贷款规模,从而激励企业投资。而从表外业务来看,经济政策不确定性则会通过减小影子银行规模,降低企业投资。在重新定义与计算关键变量、删除宏观变量和考虑产权性质影响后,上述结论仍然稳健。进一步研究发现,银监会采取的一系列影子银行治理措施是银行扩大表内业务规模、缩减表外影子银行规模的重要原因。文章的研究对于优化影子银行治理、维护金融安全以及促进实体经济发展具有重要意义。
经济政策不确定性、银行风险承担与企业投资
摘要
参考文献
10 马续涛,沈悦. 政策不确定性、货币政策与银行风险承担[J]. 华东经济管理,2017,(5):100−106. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-5097.2017.05.014
24 Angeloni I,Faia E,Lo Duca M. Monetary policy and risk taking[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2015,52: 285−307. DOI:10.1016/j.jedc.2014.12.001
25 Azzimonti M. Barriers to investment in polarized societies[J]. American Economic Review,2011,101(5): 2182−2204. DOI:10.1257/aer.101.5.2182
26 Bailey W,Huang W,Yang Z S. Bank loans with Chinese characteristics:Some evidence on inside debt in a state-controlled banking system[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2011,46(6): 1795−1830. DOI:10.1017/S0022109011000433
27 Baker S R,Bloom N,Davis S J. Measuring economic policy uncertainty[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(4): 1593−1636. DOI:10.1093/qje/qjw024
28 Borio C,Zhu H B. Capital regulation,risk-taking and monetary policy:A missing link in the transmission mechanism?[J]. Journal of Financial Stability,2012,8(4): 236−251. DOI:10.1016/j.jfs.2011.12.003
29 Bruno V,Shin H S. Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2015,71: 119−132. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.11.011
30 Cabral R. A perspective on the symptoms and causes of the financial crisis[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance,2013,37(1): 103−117.
31 Chi Q W,Li W J. Economic policy uncertainty,credit risks and banks’ lending decisions:Evidence from Chinese commercial banks[J]. China Journal of Accounting Research,2017,10(1): 33−50. DOI:10.1016/j.cjar.2016.12.001
32 Claessens S, Ratnovski L, Singh M. Shadow banking: Economics and policy[M]. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2012.
34 Drobetz W,El Ghoul S,Guedhami O,et al. Policy uncertainty,investment,and the cost of capital[J]. Journal of Financial Stability,2018,39: 28−45. DOI:10.1016/j.jfs.2018.08.005
35 Firth M,Malatesta P H,Xin Q Q,et al. Corporate investment,government control,and financing channels:Evidence from China’s Listed Companies[J]. Journal of Corporate Finance,2012,18(3): 433−450. DOI:10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2012.01.004
37 Huang Y, Luk P. Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China[R]. Working Paper, Hong Kong Baptist University, 2018.
38 Julio B,Yook Y. Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles[J]. The Journal of Finance,2012,67(1): 45−83. DOI:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01707.x
40 Maddaloni A,Peydró J L. Bank risk-taking,securitization,supervision,and low interest rates:Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. lending standards[J]. The Review of Financial Studies,2011,24(6): 2121−2165. DOI:10.1093/rfs/hhr015
41 Thompson S B. Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,2011,99(1): 1−10. DOI:10.1016/j.jfineco.2010.08.016
引用本文
潘攀, 邓超, 邱煜. 经济政策不确定性、银行风险承担与企业投资[J]. 财经研究, 2020, 46(2): 67-81.
导出参考文献,格式为: