如何在降低养老保险缴费率的同时实现养老金替代率不降、基金财务平衡和经济增长三个目标,是社会各界关注的热点话题。文章构建世代交叠模型,基于新古典增长框架和内生增长框架,在基金财务平衡约束下考察降低养老保险缴费率和延迟退休对总产出增长率和养老金替代率的影响,探讨延迟退休能否破解降费率“不可能三角”。研究结果表明:(1)两种框架下,降低养老保险缴费率都能使总产出增长率上升和养老金替代率下降,从而证实了降费率存在政策目标上的“不可能三角”;(2)两种框架下,延迟退休都使得养老金替代率上升,但其对总产出增长率的影响则截然相反;(3)延迟退休能否破解降费率“不可能三角”取决于经济增长模式,“不可能三角”在新古典经济增长模式下能得到有效破解,而在内生经济增长模式下则无法破解。因此,我们要辩证看待延迟退休的政策效应,既要看到短期内新古典增长模式下延迟退休能够破解降费率“不可能三角”的积极效应,也要警惕向内生增长模式转变后延迟退休带来的潜在不利影响。
延迟退休能破解养老保险降费率“不可能三角”吗?
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参考文献
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引用本文
景鹏, 陈明俊, 胡秋明. 延迟退休能破解养老保险降费率“不可能三角”吗?[J]. 财经研究, 2020, 46(10): 64-78.
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