“汇率报复案”的逆向报复效应——舒默-格雷厄姆法案的美国代价
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财经研究 2007 年 第 33 卷第 10 期, 页码：51 - 61
摘要
参考文献
摘要
"舒默-格雷厄姆法案"是美国施压人民币升值的一个最重的筹码。该法案具有浓厚的贸易保护主义特征,其核心内容是"美国将对所有从中国进口的产品征收27.5%的惩罚性关税"。文章从理论和实证上证明了该法案对美国的通货膨胀、GDP和就业率都存在逆向报复效应;同时,通过因果检验及VAR模型测算了该效应的大小。文章的结论是,"舒默-格雷厄姆法案"的实施将导致美国每年损失约50万个就业机会,远大于因中国进口商品竞争而丧失的就业数量。美国应做的是进行痛苦的结构改革,除此之外,没有捷径;而中国也不会短视地受迫于各类"汇率报复案",打乱其汇率制度改革的节奏。
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[2]Artis Michael J.The role of the exchange rate in monetary policy:The experience of other countries[A].A Blundell-Wignall(ed.).The exchange rate,international trade and the balance of payments[C].Ambassador Press,1993:208～264.
[3]Clarida,Richard,Jordi Galí,Mark Gertler.Opti mal monetary policy in open versus closed economies:An integrated approach[J].American Economic Review,2001,91(2):248～252.
[4]Engel Charles.The responsiveness of consumer prices to exchange rates and thei mplica-tions for exchange-rate policy:Asurvey of a fewrecent newopen-economy macro mod-els[R].2002a,NBER Working Paper No.8725.
[5]Kamin Steven,Mario Marazzi,John Schindler.Is China exporting inflation[R].Federal Reserve Board of Governors International Finance Discussion Paper2004,No.791(Jan-uary).
[6]Obstfeld M,Rogoff K.Exchange rate dynamic redux[J].Journal of Political Economy,1995:624～660.
[7]Obstfeld Maurice.Exchange rates and adjust ment:Perspectives fromthe new open e-conomy macroeconomics[R].2002b,NBER Working Paper,No.9118.
[8]Phillip Swagel.I mport prices and the competing goods effect[R].International Finance Discussion Papers508,1995,Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System(U.S.).
[9]Romer D.Openness and inflation:Theory an evidence[J].Quarterly Journals of Eco-nomics,1993:870～903.
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刘阳, 赵静梅. “汇率报复案”的逆向报复效应——舒默-格雷厄姆法案的美国代价[J]. 财经研究, 2007, 33(10): 51–61.
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