基于反事实思维视角的创业研究前沿探析与未来展望
7544 
571
外国经济与管理 2013 年 第 35 卷第 10 期, 页码：13 - 21
摘要
参考文献
摘要
研究创业者的思维方式是了解其认知图式、探索其创业行动规律的重要手段之一,起源于心理学的反事实思维研究为研究创业者的思维方式提供了一个全新的视角。自Baron(1998)把反事实思维概念引入创业研究迄今已有15个年头。在这15年里,基于反事实思维视角的创业研究虽然取得了一些进展,但仍呈现出发散发展的态势,总体而言缺乏系统性。本文在梳理现有相关文献的基础上,先介绍了反事实思维研究现状,然后以四个与创业有关的问题作为主线尽可能厘清现有研究的发展脉络,最后拓展性地讨论了未来创业研究可能遇到的反事实思维应用问题,并指出了若干未来研究的发展方向。
[1]Arora P,et al.Counterfactual thinking and entrepreneurialself-efficacy:The moderating role of self-esteem and disposi-tional affect[J].Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,2011,37(2):359-385.
[2]Barney J B.Resource-based theories of competitive advantage:A ten-year retrospective on the resource-based view[J].Jour-nal of Management,2001,27(6):643-650.
[3]Baron R A.Cognitive mechanisms in entrepreneurship:Whyand when enterpreneurs think differently than other people[J].Journal of Business Venturing,1998,13(4):275-294.
[4]Baron R A.Behavioral and cognitive factors in entrepreneur-ship:Entrepreneurs as the active element in new venture crea-tion[J].Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal,2007,1(1/2):167-182.
[5]Baum J R and Locke E A.The relationship of entrepreneurialtraits,skill,and motivation to subsequent venture growth[J].Journal of Applied Psychology,2004,89(4):587-593.
[6]Clarysse B,et al.Explaining growth paths of young technology-based firms:Structuring resource portfolios in different com-petitive environments[J].Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal,2011,5(2):137-157.
[7]Cope J.Toward a dynamic learning perspective of entrepre-neurship[J].Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,2005,29(4):373-397.
[8]Cope J.Entrepreneurial learning from failure:An interpreta-tive phenomenological analysis[J].Journal of Business Ventu-ring,2011,26(6):604-623.
[9]Eckhardt J T and Shane S A.Response to the commentaries:The individual-opportunity nexus integrates objective andsubjective aspects of entrepreneurship[J].Academy of Mana-gement Review,2013,38(1):160-163.
[10]Foss N J.Knowledge-based approaches to the theory of thefirm:Some critical comments[J].Organization Science,1996,7(5):470-476.
[11]Gaglio C M.The role of mental simulations and counterfac-tual thinking in the opportunity identification process[J].En-trepreneurship Theory and Practice,2004,28(6):533-552.
[12]Gartner W B,et al.Acting as if:Differentiating entrepreneu-rial from organizational behavior[J].Entrepreneurship Theoryand Practice,1992,16(3):13-31.
[13]Gavanski I and Wells G L.Counterfactual processing of nor-mal and exceptional events[J].Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,1989,25(4):314-325.
[14]Hechavarria D M,et al.The nascent entrepreneurship hub:Goals,entrepreneurial self-efficacy and start-up outcomes[J].Small Business Economics,2012,39(3):685-701.
[15]Holcomb T R,et al.Architecture of entrepreneurial learning:Exploring the link among heuristics,knowledge,and action[J].Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,2009,33(1):167-192.
[16]Kahneman D and Tversky A.The simulation heuristic[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,1982.
[17]Kahneman D and Miller D T.Norm theory:Comparing reality toits alternatives[J].Psychology Review,1986,93(1):136-153.
[18]Kahneman D and Lovallo D.Timid choices and bold fore-casts:A cognitive perspective on risk taking[J].ManagementScience,1993,39(1):17-31.
[19]Kolb D A.Experiential learning:Experience as the source oflearning and development[M].Englewood Cliffs,NJ:PrenticeHall,1984.
[20]Kray L J,et al.Thinking within the box:The relational pro-cessing style elicited by counterfactual mind-sets[J].Journalof Personality and Social Psychology,2006,91(1):33-48
[21]Krueger N F.The impact of prior entrepreneurial exposureon perceptions of new venture feasibility and desirability[J].Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,1993,18(1):5-21.
[22]Kruger J,et al.Counterfactual thinking and the first instinctfallacy[J].Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,2005,88(5):725-735.
[23]Leitch C,et al.Entrepreneurial and business growth and thequest for a“comprehensive theory”:Tilting at windmills?[J].Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,2010,34(2):249-260.
[24]Markman G D,et al.Inventors and new venture formation:The effects of general self-efficacy and regretful thinking[J].Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,2002,27(2):149-165.
[25]Markman G D,et al.Are perseverance and self-efficacy cost-less?Assessing entrepreneurs’regretful thinking[J].Journalof Organizational Behavior,2005,26(1):1-19.
[26]Palich L E and Bagby D.Using cognitive theory to explainentrepreneurial risk-taking:Challenging conventional wisdom[J].Journal of Business Venturing,1995,10(6):425-438.
[27]Rafetseder E and Perner J.When the alternative would havebeen better:Counterfactual reasoning and the emergence ofregret[J].Cognition&Emotion,2012,26(5):800-819.
[28]Ravasi D and Turati C.Exploring entrepreneurial learning:Acomparative study of technology development projects[J].Journal of Business Venturing,2005,20(1):137-164.
[29]Rips L J and Edwards B J.Inference and explanation in coun-terfactual reasoning[J].Cognitive Science,2013,37(6):1107-1135.
[30]Roese N J.The functional basis of counterfactual thinking[J].Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1994,66(5):805-812.
[31]Pyszczynski T,et al.Why do people need self-esteem?A theoret-ical and empirical review[J].Psychological Bulletin,2004,130(3):435-468.
[32]Sarasvathy S D.Effectual reasoning in expert entrepreneurialdecisions:Existence and bounds[R].Academy of Management Meeting Best Paper,2001.
[33]Shane S and Venkataraman S.The promise of entrepreneur-ship as a field of research[J].Academy of Management Re-view,2000,25(1):217-226.
[34]Shepherd D A.Educating entrepreneurship students about e-motion and learning from failure[J].Academy of Management Learning&Education,2004,3(3):274-287.
[35]Weiner B.Theories of motivation:From mechanism to cogni-tion[M].Chicago:Markham Publishing Company,1972.
[36]Wright M and Stigliani I.Entrepreneurship and growth[J].International Small Business Journal,2013,31(1):3-22.
[37]Zhao H,et al.The mediating role of self-efficacy in the deve-lopment of entrepreneurial intentions[J].Journal of Applied Psychology,2005,90(6):1265-1272.
①国内学者张结海和朱正才(2003)把“counterfactual thinking”译为“假设思维”,蒋勇(2004)把它译成“虚拟思维”,而陈俊等(2007)则把它译为“反事实思维”。我们倾向于采用陈俊等的汉译名,因为“虚拟”和“假设”二词在中文中虽然与“反事实思维”一样,都有“不是事实”的意思,但“虚拟思维”和“假设思维”都含有“想象”和“创造”的意思。而“反事实思维”则强调对过去已经发生的事情进行否定性心理模拟和替换,目的在于推理、归因、预测,有利于明确目的,改善行为。反事实思维不是对未来的期望,而是对既成事实的否定。因此,我们认为把“counterfactual thinking”译为“反事实思维”比较合适,在中文表述中能比较明确地将“已经发生”和“没有发生”区分开来。
[2]Barney J B.Resource-based theories of competitive advantage:A ten-year retrospective on the resource-based view[J].Jour-nal of Management,2001,27(6):643-650.
[3]Baron R A.Cognitive mechanisms in entrepreneurship:Whyand when enterpreneurs think differently than other people[J].Journal of Business Venturing,1998,13(4):275-294.
[4]Baron R A.Behavioral and cognitive factors in entrepreneur-ship:Entrepreneurs as the active element in new venture crea-tion[J].Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal,2007,1(1/2):167-182.
[5]Baum J R and Locke E A.The relationship of entrepreneurialtraits,skill,and motivation to subsequent venture growth[J].Journal of Applied Psychology,2004,89(4):587-593.
[6]Clarysse B,et al.Explaining growth paths of young technology-based firms:Structuring resource portfolios in different com-petitive environments[J].Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal,2011,5(2):137-157.
[7]Cope J.Toward a dynamic learning perspective of entrepre-neurship[J].Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,2005,29(4):373-397.
[8]Cope J.Entrepreneurial learning from failure:An interpreta-tive phenomenological analysis[J].Journal of Business Ventu-ring,2011,26(6):604-623.
[9]Eckhardt J T and Shane S A.Response to the commentaries:The individual-opportunity nexus integrates objective andsubjective aspects of entrepreneurship[J].Academy of Mana-gement Review,2013,38(1):160-163.
[10]Foss N J.Knowledge-based approaches to the theory of thefirm:Some critical comments[J].Organization Science,1996,7(5):470-476.
[11]Gaglio C M.The role of mental simulations and counterfac-tual thinking in the opportunity identification process[J].En-trepreneurship Theory and Practice,2004,28(6):533-552.
[12]Gartner W B,et al.Acting as if:Differentiating entrepreneu-rial from organizational behavior[J].Entrepreneurship Theoryand Practice,1992,16(3):13-31.
[13]Gavanski I and Wells G L.Counterfactual processing of nor-mal and exceptional events[J].Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,1989,25(4):314-325.
[14]Hechavarria D M,et al.The nascent entrepreneurship hub:Goals,entrepreneurial self-efficacy and start-up outcomes[J].Small Business Economics,2012,39(3):685-701.
[15]Holcomb T R,et al.Architecture of entrepreneurial learning:Exploring the link among heuristics,knowledge,and action[J].Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,2009,33(1):167-192.
[16]Kahneman D and Tversky A.The simulation heuristic[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,1982.
[17]Kahneman D and Miller D T.Norm theory:Comparing reality toits alternatives[J].Psychology Review,1986,93(1):136-153.
[18]Kahneman D and Lovallo D.Timid choices and bold fore-casts:A cognitive perspective on risk taking[J].ManagementScience,1993,39(1):17-31.
[19]Kolb D A.Experiential learning:Experience as the source oflearning and development[M].Englewood Cliffs,NJ:PrenticeHall,1984.
[20]Kray L J,et al.Thinking within the box:The relational pro-cessing style elicited by counterfactual mind-sets[J].Journalof Personality and Social Psychology,2006,91(1):33-48
[21]Krueger N F.The impact of prior entrepreneurial exposureon perceptions of new venture feasibility and desirability[J].Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,1993,18(1):5-21.
[22]Kruger J,et al.Counterfactual thinking and the first instinctfallacy[J].Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,2005,88(5):725-735.
[23]Leitch C,et al.Entrepreneurial and business growth and thequest for a“comprehensive theory”:Tilting at windmills?[J].Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,2010,34(2):249-260.
[24]Markman G D,et al.Inventors and new venture formation:The effects of general self-efficacy and regretful thinking[J].Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,2002,27(2):149-165.
[25]Markman G D,et al.Are perseverance and self-efficacy cost-less?Assessing entrepreneurs’regretful thinking[J].Journalof Organizational Behavior,2005,26(1):1-19.
[26]Palich L E and Bagby D.Using cognitive theory to explainentrepreneurial risk-taking:Challenging conventional wisdom[J].Journal of Business Venturing,1995,10(6):425-438.
[27]Rafetseder E and Perner J.When the alternative would havebeen better:Counterfactual reasoning and the emergence ofregret[J].Cognition&Emotion,2012,26(5):800-819.
[28]Ravasi D and Turati C.Exploring entrepreneurial learning:Acomparative study of technology development projects[J].Journal of Business Venturing,2005,20(1):137-164.
[29]Rips L J and Edwards B J.Inference and explanation in coun-terfactual reasoning[J].Cognitive Science,2013,37(6):1107-1135.
[30]Roese N J.The functional basis of counterfactual thinking[J].Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1994,66(5):805-812.
[31]Pyszczynski T,et al.Why do people need self-esteem?A theoret-ical and empirical review[J].Psychological Bulletin,2004,130(3):435-468.
[32]Sarasvathy S D.Effectual reasoning in expert entrepreneurialdecisions:Existence and bounds[R].Academy of Management Meeting Best Paper,2001.
[33]Shane S and Venkataraman S.The promise of entrepreneur-ship as a field of research[J].Academy of Management Re-view,2000,25(1):217-226.
[34]Shepherd D A.Educating entrepreneurship students about e-motion and learning from failure[J].Academy of Management Learning&Education,2004,3(3):274-287.
[35]Weiner B.Theories of motivation:From mechanism to cogni-tion[M].Chicago:Markham Publishing Company,1972.
[36]Wright M and Stigliani I.Entrepreneurship and growth[J].International Small Business Journal,2013,31(1):3-22.
[37]Zhao H,et al.The mediating role of self-efficacy in the deve-lopment of entrepreneurial intentions[J].Journal of Applied Psychology,2005,90(6):1265-1272.
①国内学者张结海和朱正才(2003)把“counterfactual thinking”译为“假设思维”,蒋勇(2004)把它译成“虚拟思维”,而陈俊等(2007)则把它译为“反事实思维”。我们倾向于采用陈俊等的汉译名,因为“虚拟”和“假设”二词在中文中虽然与“反事实思维”一样,都有“不是事实”的意思,但“虚拟思维”和“假设思维”都含有“想象”和“创造”的意思。而“反事实思维”则强调对过去已经发生的事情进行否定性心理模拟和替换,目的在于推理、归因、预测,有利于明确目的,改善行为。反事实思维不是对未来的期望,而是对既成事实的否定。因此,我们认为把“counterfactual thinking”译为“反事实思维”比较合适,在中文表述中能比较明确地将“已经发生”和“没有发生”区分开来。
引用本文
何轩, 陈文婷, 李青. 基于反事实思维视角的创业研究前沿探析与未来展望[J]. 外国经济与管理, 2013, 35(10): 13–21.
导出参考文献，格式为：
