国防支出与经济增长均衡关系的理论和实证研究——基于门槛回归模型的检验分析
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财经研究 2011 年 第 37 卷第 01 期, 页码：17 - 27
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章首先将国防支出纳入Solow增长模型进行理论分析,假定国防支出通过影响技术进步对经济增长产生影响。与现有实证分析不同,文章基于1952-2008年中国的有关时间序列数据,尝试运用非线性门槛回归模型来分析国防支出与经济增长之间的数量关系。研究发现:国防支出与经济增长之间存在门槛效应,国防支出占GDP的比例低于3.434%时,国防支出占GDP的比例的增加不利于经济增长,且这种负面作用较为显著;当该比例高于3.434%时,该比例的增加将显著促进经济增长。当然,该比例并非越低越好,也并非越高越好,其局部最优规模由次级门槛值决定。
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[3]姚洋.非国有经济成分对我国工业企业技术效率的影响[J].经济研究,1998,(12):29-35.
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[5]Benoit E.Growth and defense in developing countries[J].Economic Development andCultural Change,1978,26(2):271-280.
[6]Atesoglu H S,Mueller M J.Defence spending and economic growth[J].Defence Eco-nomics,1990,2(1):89-100.
[7]Yakovlev P.Arms trade,military spending,and economic growth[J].Defence andPeace Economics,2007,18(4):317-338.
[8]Pieroni L.Can we declare military Keynesianism dead?[R].Discussion Papers No.0804,University of the West of England,2008.
[9]Biswas B,Ram R.Military expenditures and economic growth in less developed coun-tries:An augmented model and further evidence[J].Economic Development and Cul-tural Change,1986,34(2):361-372.
[10]Mankiw N G,Romer D,Weil N D.A contribution to the empirics of economicsgrowth[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1992,107(2):407-437.
[11]Knight M,Loayza N,Villanueva D.The peace dividend:Military spending cuts andeconomic growth[R].Policy Research Working Paper Series NO.1577,The WorldBank,1996.
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[13]Maish A,Maish R,Hasan M.New evidence from an alternative methodological ap-proach to the defence spending-economic growth causality issue in the case of MainlandChina[J].Journal of Economic Studies,1997,24(3):123-140.
[14]Hansen B E.Inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hy-pothesis[J].Econometrica,1996,64(2):413-430.
[15]Hansen B E.Sample splitting and threshold estimation[J].Econometrica,2000,68(3):575-603.
引用本文
王万珺, 陈晓和. 国防支出与经济增长均衡关系的理论和实证研究——基于门槛回归模型的检验分析[J]. 财经研究, 2011, 37(1): 17–27.
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