储蓄率、经常项目顺差与人口结构变迁
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财经研究 2011 年 第 37 卷第 01 期, 页码：5 - 16
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章从一个多期人口代际交叠模型入手,分析了计划生育政策对人口结构和抚养比例的影响,同时还运用中国数据对人口抚养比与储蓄率、相对生产率差异与经常项目差额进行协整与因果检验。文章认为:计划生育政策并非不可持续,特定时期内放开该政策已经无法应对社会抚养高峰,而保持该政策则会获得一个较低人口总量的均衡人口结构。经常项目差额实际上只是储蓄的跨时空转移。人口年龄结构决定储蓄率,决定储蓄的跨时间转移,国家相对生产率差异决定储蓄的跨空间转移。空间上的这种转移并不改变一国国民的总福利;时间上的转移也不改变代与代之间的总福利。因此,不考虑人口结构、提高即期消费率刺激经济的做法值得商榷,过分关注短期经常项目差额并无太大必要。
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[3]王仁言.人口年龄结构、贸易差额与中国汇率政策的调整[J].世界经济,2003,(9):3-9,80.
[4]郑长德.中国各地区人口结构与储蓄率关系的实证研究[J].人口与经济,2007,(6):1-4,11.
[5]周渭兵.未来五十年我国社会抚养比预测及其研究[J].统计研究,2004,(11):35-38.
[6]Coale Ansley,Edgar Hoover.Population growth and economic development in low-in-come countries[M].Princeton,N.J.:Princeton University Press,1958.
[7]Goldberger Arthur.Dependency rates and savings rates:Further comment[J].Ameri-can Economic Review,1973,63(1):232-33.
[8]Higgins Matthew,Feffrey G Williamson.Asian demography and foreign capital depend-ence[R].NBER Working Papers,No.5560,1996.
[9]Horioka C Y,Wan J.The determinants of household saving in China:A dynamic panelanalysis of provincial data[R].NBER Working Papers,No.12723,2006.
[10]Kraay A.Household saving in China[J].World Bank Economic Review,2000,14:545-570.
[11]Modigliani Franco.The life cycle hypothesis of saving and intercountry differences inthe saving ratio[A].W A Elits,M F Scott,J N Wolfe.Induction,growth and trade:Essays in honor of Sir Roy Harrod[C].UK:Oxford University Press,1970.
[12]Modigliani F,Cao Shi Larry.The Chinese saving puzzle and the life cycle hypothesis[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2000,42:145-170.
[13]Ram Rati.Dependency rates and aggregate savings:A new international cross-sectionstudy[J].American Economic Review,1982,72(3):537-44.
引用本文
朱超, 周晔. 储蓄率、经常项目顺差与人口结构变迁[J]. 财经研究, 2011, 37(1): 5–16.
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