在人口生育率下降与预期寿命延长的双重作用下,OECD国家普遍出现了少子老龄化危机。根据公共养老金支出水平模型及其参数的敏感性分析,老年抚养比不断上升将导致公共养老金支出水平逐步提高,提高退休年龄将降低老年抚养比并有助于控制公共养老金支出的过快增长。基于此,大多数OECD国家都进行了提高退休年龄的改革。文章对这些国家提高退休年龄的基本条件(人口预期寿命、健康预期寿命、劳动力受教育水平和劳动年龄人口比重)以及政策设计进行了比较分析,其主要经验为:一是在充分考虑宏观经济和人口条件的基础上进行退休年龄调整;二是在一定周期内小步渐进逐步提高退休年龄并设置了改革的窗口期;三是为避免改革的经济效率损失,建立了弹性退休政策、老年人就业促进和保护政策等辅助机制。在此基础上,文章对我国提高退休年龄的条件以及政策设计进行了讨论。
少子老龄化、公共养老金支出与提高退休年龄——基于OECD国家的经验比较
摘要
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引用本文
柳清瑞, 苏牧羊. 少子老龄化、公共养老金支出与提高退休年龄——基于OECD国家的经验比较[J]. 上海财经大学学报, 2016, 18(3): 74–93.
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