类比推理主要指个体应用一个领域或场景中的知识来处理另一个领域或场景下的问题。类比推理作为管理判断的内在认知机制,对于理解不确定环境下的战略决策制定有重要意义。尽管近年涌现大量采用类比推理解释战略议题的研究,但未就类比推理的基本过程以及影响其决策效果的因素形成系统性的讨论。本文首先总结了应用类比推理制定不确定环境下战略决策的基本过程;其次,综合已有文献,讨论了映射算法、心智表征、源情境特征、启示特征以及搜寻方式等对类比推理决策效果有直接影响的五大过程因素,以及历史经验、外部信息、环境特征、主体特征四大外部因素如何作用于过程因素而对决策效果产生影响的;最后,从深化个体层类比推理过程、探索团队层/企业层类比推理机制发挥作用的过程、拓展影响决策效果的因素及相互作用这三个方面提出了类比推理研究可进一步拓展的议题。
不确定环境下的战略决策:类比推理的作用
摘要
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引用本文
廖颖, 刘鹏, 席酉民. 不确定环境下的战略决策:类比推理的作用[J]. 外国经济与管理, 2018, 40(8): 17-29.
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