在"未富先病"以及"健康中国"的背景下,文章从产业结构出发,通过使用世界银行数据库和佩恩表 1995-2011年百余个国家的面板数据,研究了健康投资行业的发展对经济结构的影响,以期为当下中国转型经济结构的时代诉求提供参考。研究结果显示:首先,发展健康投资行业有助于增加服务业就业人口比重,并且私人健康投资对增加服务业就业人口比重的影响系数大于公共健康投资;其次,相对于公共健康投资,私人健康投资对第二产业增加值的挤出效应更有限;第三,发展健康服务业,尤其是公共健康事业将加快经济结构转型速度。综上所述,发展健康产业对推进产业结构转型具有积极意义,但如何在政策效果和可能的阻力之间进行权衡还需要政策制定者的慎重考虑。
健康投资的产业结构效应:来自OECD等国家的宏观证据
摘要
参考文献
1 Deaton A. 逃离不平等: 健康、财富及不平等的起源[M]. 崔传刚译. 北京: 中信出版社, 2014.
2 E. J. 米香. 经济增长的代价[M]. 任保平, 梁炜译. 北京: 机械工业出版社, 2011.
3 郭佩颖. 产业结构变动与经济增长的收敛性[D]. 长春: 吉林大学, 2013.
6 吕娜. 健康人力资本与经济增长——基于私人与公共健康投资的内生增长模型和实证分析[D]. 武汉: 武汉大学, 2011.
7 乔为国, 周卫峰.中国三次产业结构特征及解释[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2004, (11): 36-43. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-3894.2004.11.005
13 Acemoglu D, Johnson S. Disease and development: The effect of life expectancy on economic growth[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 2007, 115(6): 925-985. DOI:10.1086/529000
14 Agénor P R. Health and infrastructure in a model of endogenous growth[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2008, 30(4): 1407-1422. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2008.04.003
15 Aísa R, Pueyo F. Government health spending and growth in a model of endogenous longevity[J]. Economics letters, 2006, 90(2): 249-253. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2005.08.003
17 Athanasakis K, Ferrante S A, Kyriopoulos I I, et al. Boceprevir for chronic genotype 1 hepatitis C virus in the current health care setting in Greece: A cost-effectiveness analysis[J]. Clinical Therapeutics, 2015, 37(7): 1529-1540. DOI:10.1016/j.clinthera.2015.05.003
18 Barro R J, Becker G S. Fertility choice in a model of economic growth[J]. Econometrica, 1989, 57(2): 481-501. DOI:10.2307/1912563
19 Barro R J. Health and economic growth[R]. Geneva: World Health Organization, 1996.
20 Blackburn K, Cipriani G P. Endogenous fertility, mortality and growth[J]. Journal of Population Economics, 1998, 11(4): 517-534. DOI:10.1007/s001480050082
21 Bloom D E, Canning D. The health and wealth of nations[J]. Science, 2000, 287(5456): 1207-1209. DOI:10.1126/science.287.5456.1207
22 Bloom D E, Canning D, Sevilla J. The effect of health on economic growth: A production function approach[J]. World Development, 2004, 32(1): 1-13. DOI:10.1016/j.worlddev.2003.07.002
23 Bloom D E, Canning D, Mansfield R K, et al. Demographic change, social security systems, and savings[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54(1): 92-114. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.12.004
24 Cervellati M, Sunde U. Life expectancy and economic growth: The role of the demographic transition[J]. Journal of Economic Growth, 2011, 16(2): 99-133. DOI:10.1007/s10887-011-9065-2
25 Fuchs V R. The supply of surgeons and the demand for operations[J]. The Journal of Human Resources, 1978, 13: 35-56. DOI:10.2307/145247
26 Grossman M. On the concept of health capital and the demand for health[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1972, 80(2): 223-255. DOI:10.1086/259880
27 Hartwig J. Is health capital formation good for long-term economic growth?-Panel Granger-causality evidence for OECD countries[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2010, 32(1): 314-325. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2009.06.003
28 Heuveline P. The global and regional impact of mortality and fertility transitions, 1950-2000[J]. Population and Development Review, 1999, 25(4): 681-702. DOI:10.1111/padr.1999.25.issue-4
29 Kessler D, McClellan M. Do doctors practice defensive medicine?[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1996, 111(2): 353-390. DOI:10.2307/2946682
30 Kleiman E. The determinants of national outlay on health[A]. Perlman M. The economics of health and medical care:Proceedings of a conference held by the International Economic Association at Tokyo[C]. UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 1974.
31 Kuznets S. Economic growth and the contribution of agriculture[M]. New York: Mc Graw-Hill, 1964.
32 Kuznets S. Modern economic growth: Rate, structure, and spread[M]. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966.
33 Leu R E. The public-private mix and international health care costs[A]. Culyer A J, Jonsson B. Public and private health services: Complementarities and conflicts[C]. Oxford, New York: Blackwell, 1986.
34 Liu G G, Dow W H, Fu A Z, et al. Income productivity in China: On the role of health[J]. Journal of Health Economics, 2008, 27(1): 27-44. DOI:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2007.05.001
35 Manning W G, Newhouse J P, Duan N H, et al. Health insurance and the demand for medical care: Evidence from a randomized experiment[J]. The American Economic Review, 1987, 77(3): 251-277.
36 Mocan H N, Tekin E, Zax J S. The demand for medical care in urban China[J]. World Development, 2004, 32(2): 289-304. DOI:10.1016/j.worlddev.2003.07.006
37 Moscone F, Tosetti E. Health expenditure and income in the United States[J]. Health Economics, 2010, 19(12): 1385-1403. DOI:10.1002/hec.v19:12
38 Narayan S, Narayan P K, Mishra S. Investigating the relationship between health and economic growth: Empirical evidence from a panel of 5 Asian countries[J]. Journal of Asian Economics, 2010, 21(4): 404-411. DOI:10.1016/j.asieco.2010.03.006
39 Newhouse J P, Phelps C E. New estimates of price and income elasticities of medical care services[A]. Rosett R N. The role of health insurance in the health services sector[C]. New York: NBER, 1976.
40 Newhouse J P. Medical-care expenditure: A cross-national survey[J]. The Journal of Human Resources, 1977, 12(1): 115-125. DOI:10.2307/145602
41 Newhouse J P. Medical care costs: How much welfare loss?[J]. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1992, 6(3): 3-21. DOI:10.1257/jep.6.3.3
42 Ngai L R, Pissarides C A. Structural change in a multisector model of growth[J]. The American Economic Review, 2007, 97(1): 429-443. DOI:10.1257/000282807780323460
43 Russell L B, Gold M R, Siegel J E, et al. The role of cost-effectiveness analysis in health and medicine[J]. JAMA, 1996, 276(14): 1172-1177. DOI:10.1001/jama.1996.03540140060028
44 Soares R R. Mortality reductions, educational attainment, and fertility choice[J]. The American Economic Review, 2005, 95(3): 580-601. DOI:10.1257/0002828054201486
45 Stewart W F, Ricci J A, Chee E, et al. Lost productive time and cost due to common pain conditions in the US workforce[J]. JAMA, 2003, 290(18): 2443-2454. DOI:10.1001/jama.290.18.2443
47 Weeks H A. Family spending patterns and health care[M]. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1961.
48 Well D N. Accounting for the effect of health on economic growth[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2007, 122(3): 1265-1306. DOI:10.1162/qjec.122.3.1265
引用本文
姚瑶, 刘斌, 刘国恩. 健康投资的产业结构效应:来自OECD等国家的宏观证据[J]. 财经研究, 2017, 43(5): 102–116.
导出参考文献,格式为: