财政支出结构变动对私人消费影响的动态分析——生命周期视角下政府支出结构需要调整的经验证据
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财经研究 2010 年 第 36 卷第 06 期, 页码：91 - 102
摘要
参考文献
摘要
人们对政府财政支出无论是从总量还是从结构上的合理性一直都存在着争议,文章通过考察政府财政支出结构与私人消费的关系,建立代表性消费者的跨期迭代理论模型,同时利用相关宏观经济数据,研究我国政府财政支出结构对私人消费的影响。实证结果表明:政府的行政管理费用支出对私人消费有挤出作用,政府的社会文教费用支出、经济建设支出以及其他补贴性的财政支出对私人消费有拉动作用。另外,基础经济建设支出的动态变化显示,短期内能促进GDP、私人消费以及就业率的提高,但随着时间的推移会出现一定的抑制作用。研究结论为促进私人消费、合理调整政府财政支出结构提供了新的证据。
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[3]李广众.政府支出与居民消费:替代还是互补[J].世界经济,2005,(5):38-45.
[4]李永友,丛树海.居民消费与中国财政政策的有效性:基于居民最优消费决策行为的经验分析[J].世界经济,2006,(5):54-64.
[5]Aschauer D A.Fiscal policy and aggregate demand[J].American Economic Review,1985,75:117-127.
[6]Athanasios,Tagkalakis.The effects of fiscal policy on consumptionin recessions and ex-pansions[J].Journal of Public Economics,2008,92:1486-1508.
[7]Bailey MJ.National income and the price level[M].New York:McGraw-Hill,1971.
[8]Campbell,John Y,Manki w,N Gregory.Permanent income,current income,and con-sumption[J].Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,1990.
[9]Graham F C.Fiscal policy and aggregate demand:Comment[J].American Economic Re-view,1993,83:659-666.
[10]Gunter Coenen,Roland Straub.Does government spending crowd in private consump-tion?Theory and empirical evidence for the Euro Area[J].International Finance,2005,8(3):435-470.
[11]Hall R.Stochastic i mplications of the life cycle permanent income hypothesis:Theoryand practice[J].Journal of Political Econmy,1978,86:971-987.
[12]Karras G.Government spending and private consumption:Some international evidence[J].Journal of money,Credit,and Banking,1994,24:9-22.
[13]Jordi Galí,J David López-Salido,Javier Vallés.Understanding the effects of govern-ment spending on consumption[J].Journal of European Economic Association,2007,(5):227-270.
[14]Riccardo,Fiorito,Tryphon.Kollintzas,Public goods,merit goods,and the relation be-tween private and government consumption[J].European Economic Review,2004,48:1367-1398.
[15]Stephen M Miller.Crowding-out and crowding-in effects of the components of govern-ment expenditure[J].Contemporary Economic Policy,2000,18:124-133.
[16]Tsung-wu Ho.The government spending and private on consumption:Apanel integra-tion analysis[J].International Reviewof Economics and Finance,2001,(10):95-108.
[17]White H.Maxi mum likelihood esti mation of misspecified models[J].Econometrica,1982,50:1-25.
引用本文
李春琦, 唐哲一. 财政支出结构变动对私人消费影响的动态分析——生命周期视角下政府支出结构需要调整的经验证据[J]. 财经研究, 2010, 36(6): 91–102.
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