气候变化与中国农村贫困陷阱
5748 
2467
财经研究 2014 年 第 40 卷第 01 期, 页码：64 - 74
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章基于1989-2009年CHNS数据库中的农户平衡面板数据,实证分析了气候变化对中国农户资产动态的影响,并对比分析了"最贫困户"、"中等富裕户"与"最富裕户"的反应差异。结果表明:(1)中国农村并不存在基于多点均衡的贫困陷阱,而是多数农户都趋同于一个单一的长期福利均衡点。中国农户的资产增长趋势符合俱乐部效应中的"绝对β-收敛"(而非"条件β-收敛"),人均资产水平在不同群体之间呈现均等化趋势。(2)农户投资对气温上升和旱灾增加的反应并不敏感,而对降雨减少却反应明显。当降雨减少时,"最贫困户"采取风险规避行为,其倾向于变卖消费型资产以平滑生产型与固定型资产;"中等富裕户"采取风险应对行为,其倾向于增加生产型与固定型资产投资;"最富裕户"则对降雨减少的反应不敏感,各类资产变化不明显。
[1]Adato M,Carter M,May J.Exploring poverty traps and social exclusion in South Africa using qualitative and quantitative data[J].Journal of Development Studies,2006,42(2):226-247.
[2]Ainsworth E A,Leakey A D B,Ort D R,et al.FACE-ing the facts:Inconsistencies and interdependence among field,chamber and modeling studies of elevated CO2impacts on crop yield and food supply[J].New Phytologist,2008,179(1):5-9.
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[8]Carter M R,Lybbert T J.Consumption versus asset smoothing:Testing the implications of poverty trap theory in Burkina Faso[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,99(2):255-264.
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[10]Dercon S.Growth and shocks:Evidence from rural Ethiopia[J].Journal of Development Economics,2004,74(2):309-329.
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[12]Enfors E I,Gordon L J.Dealing with drought:The challenge of using water system technologies to break dry land poverty traps[J].Global Environmental Change,2008,18(4):607-616.
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[15]Jakobsen K T.In the eye of the storm—The welfare impacts of a hurricane[J].World Development,2012,40(12):2578-2589.
[16]Jalan J,Ravallion M.Transient poverty in post reform rural China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,1998,26(2):338-357.
[17]Jalan J,Ravallion M.Household income dynamics in rural China[A].Dercon S.Insurance against poverty[C].Oxford:Oxford University Press,2004.
[18]Labar K,Bresson F.A multidimensional analysis of poverty in China from 1991to 2006[J].China Economic Review,2011,22(4):646-668.
[19]Long S P,Ainsworth E A,Leakey A D B,et al.Food for thought:Lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2concentrations[J].Science,2006,312:1918-1921.
[20]Liverpool L S O,Winter-Nelson A.Asset versus consumption poverty and poverty dynamics in the presence of multiple equilibria in rural Ethiopia[R].IFPRI Discussion Paper 00971,2011.
[21]Liu H,Li X,Fischer G,et al.Study on the impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture[J].Climatic Change,2004,65(1-2):125-148.
[22]Lybbert T J,Barrett C B,Desta S,et al.Stochastic wealth dynamics and risk management among apoor population[J].Economic Journal,2004,114(498):750-777.
[23]Morduch J.Income smoothing and consumption smoothing[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1995,9(3):103-114.
[24]Naschold F.“The poor stay poor”:Household asset poverty traps in rural semi-arid India[J].World Development,2012,40(10):2033-2043.
[25]NBS.Statistical communique’of the People’s Republic of China on the 2011national economic and social development[M].Beijing:National Bureau of Statistics,2011.
[26]Ravallion M,Chen S.China’s(uneven)progress against poverty[J].Journal of Development Economics,2007,82(1):1-42.
[27]Rosenzweig M R,Wolpin K I.Credit market constraints,consumption smoothing,and the accumulation of durable production assets in low-income countries:Investment in bullocks in India[J].Journal of Political Economy,1993,101(2):223-244.
[28]Sen B.Drivers of escape and descent:Changing household fortunes in rural Bangladesh[J].World Development,2003,31(3):513-534.
[29]Solow R.A contribution to the theory of economic growth[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1956,70(1):65-94.
[30]Xiong W,Conway D,Lin E,et al.Future cereal production in China:The interaction of climate change,water availability and socio-economic scenarios[J].Global Environmental Change,2009,19(1):34-44.
[31]Xiong W,Lin E,Ju H,et al.Climate change and critical thresholds in China’s food security[J].Climatic Change,2007,81(2):205-221.
[32]Yao F,Xu Y,Lin E,et al.Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China[J].Climatic Change,2007,80(3-4):395-409.
[33]You L,Rosegrant M W,Wood S,et al.Impact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2009,149(6-7):1009-1014.
[34]Zimmerman F J,Carter M R.Asset smoothing,consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints[J].Journal of Development Economics,2003,71(2):233-260.
①我们依据1989年农户的综合型资产水平将样本五等分,每年每组包含256个农户(最后一组仅包含255个农户)。在第二个调查年份(1991年),我们将这1 279个农户重新依据当年的资产指数五等分,并定义五个虚拟变量Quintle19911 、Quintle19912 、Quintle19913 、Quintle19914 和Quintle19915 (其中上标表示年份,下标表示组别)以反映每个农户1991年所在组别。以此类推,同样定义之后六个调查年份的虚拟变量,共35个虚拟变量。
②资产指数是由一系列资产加权得到的,该指数的特点是将不同计量单位的资产整合为一个统一计量单位的连续变量。根据Adato等(2006)的估计方法,资产指数来源于对农户生计的计量回归,估计参数被视为不同资产的权重(即不同资产对农户生计的边际贡献)。为了考察资产的边际贡献率和不同资产间的交互影响,模型中加入了每种资产的一次项和二次项,同时还包含各种资产的两两交互项。农户生计被设定为农户人均纯收入与中国收入贫困线的比值。本文选取了中国最新公布的人均纯收入2 300元作为收入贫困线。农户生计的拟合值表示农户层面的资产指数,该指数的计量单位可称为“资产贫困线单位”(Asset Poverty Line Unit,APLU)。一般而言,资产指数小于1意味着农户低于资产贫困线,大于1则意味着高于资产贫困线。
[2]Ainsworth E A,Leakey A D B,Ort D R,et al.FACE-ing the facts:Inconsistencies and interdependence among field,chamber and modeling studies of elevated CO2impacts on crop yield and food supply[J].New Phytologist,2008,179(1):5-9.
[3]Barnett B J,Barrett C B,Skees J R.Poverty traps and index-based risk transfer products[J].World Development,2008,36(10):1766-1785.
[4]Barrett C B,Marenya P P,McPeak J G,et al.Welfare dynamics in rural Kenya and Madagascar[J].Journal of Development Studies,2006,42(2):248-277.
[5]Barrett C B,Swallow B M.Fractal poverty traps[J].World Development,2006,34(1):1-15.
[6]Carter M R,Barrett C B.The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty:An asset-based approach[J].Journal of Development Studies,2006,42(2):178-199.
[7]Carter M R,Little P D,Mogues T,et al.Poverty traps and the long-term consequences of natural disasters in Ethiopia and Honduras[J].World Development,2007,35(5):835-856.
[8]Carter M R,Lybbert T J.Consumption versus asset smoothing:Testing the implications of poverty trap theory in Burkina Faso[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,99(2):255-264.
[9]Christensen J H,Hewitson B,Busuioc A,et al.Regional climate projections[A].Solomon S,Qin D,Manning M,et al.Climate change 2007:The physical science basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[C].Cambridge and New York:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[10]Dercon S.Growth and shocks:Evidence from rural Ethiopia[J].Journal of Development Economics,2004,74(2):309-329.
[11]Dercon S,Christiaensen L.Consumption risk,technology adoption and poverty traps:Evidence from Ethiopia[J].Journal of Development Economics,2011,96(2):159-173.
[12]Enfors E I,Gordon L J.Dealing with drought:The challenge of using water system technologies to break dry land poverty traps[J].Global Environmental Change,2008,18(4):607-616.
[13]Fischer G,Shah M,Tubiello F N,et al.Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture:An integrated assessment,1990-2080[J].Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London,Series B,2005,360:2061-2083.
[14]Giesbert L,Schinder K.Assets,shocks,and poverty traps in rural Mozambique[J].World Development,2012,40(8):1594-1609.
[15]Jakobsen K T.In the eye of the storm—The welfare impacts of a hurricane[J].World Development,2012,40(12):2578-2589.
[16]Jalan J,Ravallion M.Transient poverty in post reform rural China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,1998,26(2):338-357.
[17]Jalan J,Ravallion M.Household income dynamics in rural China[A].Dercon S.Insurance against poverty[C].Oxford:Oxford University Press,2004.
[18]Labar K,Bresson F.A multidimensional analysis of poverty in China from 1991to 2006[J].China Economic Review,2011,22(4):646-668.
[19]Long S P,Ainsworth E A,Leakey A D B,et al.Food for thought:Lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2concentrations[J].Science,2006,312:1918-1921.
[20]Liverpool L S O,Winter-Nelson A.Asset versus consumption poverty and poverty dynamics in the presence of multiple equilibria in rural Ethiopia[R].IFPRI Discussion Paper 00971,2011.
[21]Liu H,Li X,Fischer G,et al.Study on the impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture[J].Climatic Change,2004,65(1-2):125-148.
[22]Lybbert T J,Barrett C B,Desta S,et al.Stochastic wealth dynamics and risk management among apoor population[J].Economic Journal,2004,114(498):750-777.
[23]Morduch J.Income smoothing and consumption smoothing[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1995,9(3):103-114.
[24]Naschold F.“The poor stay poor”:Household asset poverty traps in rural semi-arid India[J].World Development,2012,40(10):2033-2043.
[25]NBS.Statistical communique’of the People’s Republic of China on the 2011national economic and social development[M].Beijing:National Bureau of Statistics,2011.
[26]Ravallion M,Chen S.China’s(uneven)progress against poverty[J].Journal of Development Economics,2007,82(1):1-42.
[27]Rosenzweig M R,Wolpin K I.Credit market constraints,consumption smoothing,and the accumulation of durable production assets in low-income countries:Investment in bullocks in India[J].Journal of Political Economy,1993,101(2):223-244.
[28]Sen B.Drivers of escape and descent:Changing household fortunes in rural Bangladesh[J].World Development,2003,31(3):513-534.
[29]Solow R.A contribution to the theory of economic growth[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1956,70(1):65-94.
[30]Xiong W,Conway D,Lin E,et al.Future cereal production in China:The interaction of climate change,water availability and socio-economic scenarios[J].Global Environmental Change,2009,19(1):34-44.
[31]Xiong W,Lin E,Ju H,et al.Climate change and critical thresholds in China’s food security[J].Climatic Change,2007,81(2):205-221.
[32]Yao F,Xu Y,Lin E,et al.Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China[J].Climatic Change,2007,80(3-4):395-409.
[33]You L,Rosegrant M W,Wood S,et al.Impact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2009,149(6-7):1009-1014.
[34]Zimmerman F J,Carter M R.Asset smoothing,consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints[J].Journal of Development Economics,2003,71(2):233-260.
①我们依据1989年农户的综合型资产水平将样本五等分,每年每组包含256个农户(最后一组仅包含255个农户)。在第二个调查年份(1991年),我们将这1 279个农户重新依据当年的资产指数五等分,并定义五个虚拟变量Quintle19911 、Quintle19912 、Quintle19913 、Quintle19914 和Quintle19915 (其中上标表示年份,下标表示组别)以反映每个农户1991年所在组别。以此类推,同样定义之后六个调查年份的虚拟变量,共35个虚拟变量。
②资产指数是由一系列资产加权得到的,该指数的特点是将不同计量单位的资产整合为一个统一计量单位的连续变量。根据Adato等(2006)的估计方法,资产指数来源于对农户生计的计量回归,估计参数被视为不同资产的权重(即不同资产对农户生计的边际贡献)。为了考察资产的边际贡献率和不同资产间的交互影响,模型中加入了每种资产的一次项和二次项,同时还包含各种资产的两两交互项。农户生计被设定为农户人均纯收入与中国收入贫困线的比值。本文选取了中国最新公布的人均纯收入2 300元作为收入贫困线。农户生计的拟合值表示农户层面的资产指数,该指数的计量单位可称为“资产贫困线单位”(Asset Poverty Line Unit,APLU)。一般而言,资产指数小于1意味着农户低于资产贫困线,大于1则意味着高于资产贫困线。
引用本文
周力, 郑旭媛. 气候变化与中国农村贫困陷阱[J]. 财经研究, 2014, 40(1): 64–74.
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