我国统筹医疗保险体系的财政承受能力研究
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财经研究 2015 年 第 41 卷第 12 期, 页码：4 - 14
摘要
参考文献
摘要
政府对医疗保险基金财政补贴的承受能力,是制约我国医疗保险体系统筹的重要因素之一。文章在对医疗保险基金收支进行预测的基础上,运用代际核算方法分析了我国统筹医疗保险对财政体系负担的影响。模拟结果表明,如果整合城乡居民医疗保险体系,无论是短期还是长期都不会给政府财政造成太大压力。如果"城职保"、"城居保"和"新农合"完全统筹,"城居保"和"新农合"参保人员的缴费将大幅增加,会减轻政府的财政负担。如果"城居保"和"新农合"参保人员的待遇达到"城职保"水平,则"城居保"和"新农合"参保人员的缴费需要提高到676.8元,政府的负担才不会发生变化。因此,文章认为先统筹"城居保"和"新农合"是比较现实的选择,因为随着"城居保"和"新农合"参保人员缴费能力的上升,如果将"城居保"和"新农合"参保人员的缴费提高8倍左右,并把"城居保"和"新农合"参保人员的待遇提高到"城职保"水平也不会增加政府的财政负担。
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[3] 曾益,任超然,李媛媛. 中国基本医疗保险制度财务运行状况的精算评估[J].财经研究,2012,(12):26-37.
[4] Agulnik P, Cardarelli R,Sefton J. The pension green paper: A generational accounting perspective[J]. The Economic Journal, 2000,:110(467)598-610.
[5] Auerbach A J,Kotlikoff L J.Dynamic fiscal policy[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1987.
[6] Auerbach A J,Gokhale J,Kotlikoff L J. Generational accounts: A meaningful alternative to deficit accounting[A].Bradford D. Tax policy and the economy[C]. Cambridge:MIT Press,1991.
[7] Auerbach A J,Gokhale J,Kotlikoff L J. Social security and medicaid policy from the perspective of generational accounting[A]. Poterba J. Tax policy and the economy[C]. Cambridge: MIT Press,1992.
[8] Bolnick H J. A framework for long-term actuarial projections of health care costs:The importance of population aging and other factors[J]. North American Actuarial Journal, 2004,8(4):1-29.
[9] Buchanan J M.Public principles of public debt:A defence and restatement[M].Homewood:Richard Irwin,1958.
[10] Busse R. Expenditure on health care in the EU:Making projections for the future based on the past[J]. HEPAC, 2001,2(4):158-161.
[11] Kotlikoff L J. The deficit is not a well-defined measure of fiscal policy[J]. Science, 1988,241:791-795.
[12] Kotlikoff L J,Raffelhuschen B. Generational accounting around the globe[J]. American Economic Review, 1999, 89(2):161-166.
[13] Modigliani F. Long-run implications of alternative fiscal policies and the burden of the national debt[J]. The Economic Journal, 1961,71(284):730-755.
[14] Wagstaff A, Lindelow M, Jun G, et al. Extending health insurance to the rural population: An impact evaluation of China's new cooperative medical scheme[J]. Journal of Health Economics 2009,28(1):1-19.
引用本文
蒋云赟, 刘剑. 我国统筹医疗保险体系的财政承受能力研究[J]. 财经研究, 2015, 41(12): 4–14.
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