实物期权视角下的跨国企业从华撤资“迟滞”研究——来自日本跨国企业从华撤资的证据
5571 
2708
财经研究 2015 年 第 41 卷第 11 期, 页码：71 - 82
摘要
参考文献
摘要
随着中国投资环境的变化,近年来跨国企业从华撤资的现象时有发生;然而,这些撤资却存在"迟滞"现象。文章从实物期权的视角,以日本的跨国企业为样本,利用Cox比例风险模型,对影响跨国企业从华撤资"迟滞"的因素进行了实证检验。研究表明:(1)所在行业的需求不确定性与投资不可逆性影响了日本跨国企业的从华撤资决策,投资不可逆性越高与需求不确定性越大,日本跨国企业从华撤资时越有可能发生"迟滞";(2)跨国企业的投资不可逆性和多元化程度对不确定性影响撤资"迟滞"具有调节作用,投资不可逆性强化了不确定性对撤资"迟滞"的正向影响,而日本跨国企业在华的多元化程度则弱化了这种影响;(3)分支机构的冗余性和灵活性对跨国企业从华撤资"迟滞"都具有正向影响,即日本跨国企业在华分支机构的冗余性和灵活性都提高了分支机构被撤出的风险。文章的研究结论不仅有助于跨国企业理性地对待东道国市场的不确定性,避免盲目地撤出东道国,而且有助于跨国企业选择合理的撤出对象,优化在东道国的分支机构组合。
[1] 郭砚莉, 汤吉军. 对新古典经济学"沉淀成本谬误"质疑的解析[J]. 当代经济研究, 2006, (8):16-19.
[2] 郭志芳, 林季红. 汇率不确定性与对外直接投资——基于日本对亚洲 8 国直接投资的实证分析[J]. 亚太经济, 2013, (4):91-97.
[3] 黄建康. 跨国公司直接投资撤资壁垒及其政策启示[J]. 经济问题探索, 2010, (9):120-123.
[4] 宋纪宁. 跨国公司在华子公司撤资动因实证分析[J]. 当代财经, 2010, (5):71-77.
[5] 佟东. 论日本在华投资企业撤资对中国产业发展的影响[J]. 科学经济社会, 2011, (2):88-93.
[6] 赵刚, 曹阳. 日元汇率变化与对东亚直接投资——基于1989~2004年的数据兼论对我国的启示[J]. 经济管理, 2007, (7):12-16.
[7] 朱江. 我国上市公司的多元化战略和经营业绩[J]. 经济研究, 1999, (11):54-61.
[8] Bane W T, Neubauer F F. Diversification and the failure of new foreign activities[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1981, 2(3):219-233.
[9] Belderbos R, Zou J. Real options and foreign affiliate divestments: A portfolio perspective[J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 2009, 40(4):600-620.
[10] Benito G R. Divestment and international business strategy[J]. Journal of Economic Geography, 2005, 5(2):235-251.
[11] Berry H. When do firms divest foreign operations?[J]. Organization Science, 2013, 24(1):246-261.
[12] Damaraju N, Barney J B, Makhija A K. Real options in divestment alternatives[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2015, 36(5):728-744.
[13] Dixit A. Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty[J]. Journal of political Economy, 1989, 97(3):620-638.
[14] Fisch J H, Zschoche M. The effect of operational flexibility on decisions to withdraw from foreign production locations[J]. International Business Review, 2012, 21(5):806-816.
[15] Kumar S. The value from acquiring and divesting a joint venture:A real options approach[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2005, 26(4):321-331.
[16] Li J. Foreign entry and survival: Effects of strategic choices on performance in international markets[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1995, 16(5):333-351.
[17] Li J, Li Y. Flexibility versus commitment: MNEs' ownership strategy in China[J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 2010, 41(9):1550-1571.
[18] Mudambi R, Zahra S A. The survival of international new ventures[J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 2007, 38(2):333-352.
[19] O'Brien J, Folta T. Sunk costs, uncertainty and market exit: A real options perspective[J]. Industrial and Corporate Change, 2009, 18(5):807-833.
[20] Shimizu K, Hitt M A. What constrains or facilitates divestitures of formerly acquired firms? The effects of organizational inertia[J]. Journal of Management, 2005, 31(1):50-72.
[21] Song S. Entry mode irreversibility, host market uncertainty, and foreign subsidiary exits[J]. Asia Pacific Journal of Management, 2014, 31(2):455-471.
[22] Tong T W, Reuer J J, Tyler B B, et al. Host country executives'assessments of international joint ventures and divestitures:An experimental approach[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2015, 36(2):254-275.
[23] Vassolo R S, Anand J, Folta T B. Non-additivity in portfolios of exploration activities: A real options-based analysis of equity alliances in biotechnology[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2004, 25(11):1045-1061.
[2] 郭志芳, 林季红. 汇率不确定性与对外直接投资——基于日本对亚洲 8 国直接投资的实证分析[J]. 亚太经济, 2013, (4):91-97.
[3] 黄建康. 跨国公司直接投资撤资壁垒及其政策启示[J]. 经济问题探索, 2010, (9):120-123.
[4] 宋纪宁. 跨国公司在华子公司撤资动因实证分析[J]. 当代财经, 2010, (5):71-77.
[5] 佟东. 论日本在华投资企业撤资对中国产业发展的影响[J]. 科学经济社会, 2011, (2):88-93.
[6] 赵刚, 曹阳. 日元汇率变化与对东亚直接投资——基于1989~2004年的数据兼论对我国的启示[J]. 经济管理, 2007, (7):12-16.
[7] 朱江. 我国上市公司的多元化战略和经营业绩[J]. 经济研究, 1999, (11):54-61.
[8] Bane W T, Neubauer F F. Diversification and the failure of new foreign activities[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1981, 2(3):219-233.
[9] Belderbos R, Zou J. Real options and foreign affiliate divestments: A portfolio perspective[J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 2009, 40(4):600-620.
[10] Benito G R. Divestment and international business strategy[J]. Journal of Economic Geography, 2005, 5(2):235-251.
[11] Berry H. When do firms divest foreign operations?[J]. Organization Science, 2013, 24(1):246-261.
[12] Damaraju N, Barney J B, Makhija A K. Real options in divestment alternatives[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2015, 36(5):728-744.
[13] Dixit A. Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty[J]. Journal of political Economy, 1989, 97(3):620-638.
[14] Fisch J H, Zschoche M. The effect of operational flexibility on decisions to withdraw from foreign production locations[J]. International Business Review, 2012, 21(5):806-816.
[15] Kumar S. The value from acquiring and divesting a joint venture:A real options approach[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2005, 26(4):321-331.
[16] Li J. Foreign entry and survival: Effects of strategic choices on performance in international markets[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1995, 16(5):333-351.
[17] Li J, Li Y. Flexibility versus commitment: MNEs' ownership strategy in China[J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 2010, 41(9):1550-1571.
[18] Mudambi R, Zahra S A. The survival of international new ventures[J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 2007, 38(2):333-352.
[19] O'Brien J, Folta T. Sunk costs, uncertainty and market exit: A real options perspective[J]. Industrial and Corporate Change, 2009, 18(5):807-833.
[20] Shimizu K, Hitt M A. What constrains or facilitates divestitures of formerly acquired firms? The effects of organizational inertia[J]. Journal of Management, 2005, 31(1):50-72.
[21] Song S. Entry mode irreversibility, host market uncertainty, and foreign subsidiary exits[J]. Asia Pacific Journal of Management, 2014, 31(2):455-471.
[22] Tong T W, Reuer J J, Tyler B B, et al. Host country executives'assessments of international joint ventures and divestitures:An experimental approach[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2015, 36(2):254-275.
[23] Vassolo R S, Anand J, Folta T B. Non-additivity in portfolios of exploration activities: A real options-based analysis of equity alliances in biotechnology[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2004, 25(11):1045-1061.
引用本文
刘洪儒, 谢家平, 马洁. 实物期权视角下的跨国企业从华撤资“迟滞”研究——来自日本跨国企业从华撤资的证据[J]. 财经研究, 2015, 41(11): 71–82.
导出参考文献，格式为：
下一篇：出口目的地与出口企业生产率
