会计信息对宏观经济增长的预测功能已得到证实,但这一预测功能的实现路径尚不清楚。文章基于国民经济核算体系内在逻辑与会计稳健性原则,将净利润分解为资产减值项目和调整会计盈余两部分,考察了会计信息的宏观经济预测功能的实现路径。研究发现,汇总的资产减值损失和汇总的调整会计盈余对GDP增长均具有预测功能。但资产减值损失主要通过稳健性原则将对宏观经济运行风险的估计提前反映在盈余信息中,预测路径表现为“风险感知”;而调整会计盈余的预测功能主要通过与GDP收入法下营业盈余的相关性来实现,体现为“盈余传导”。进一步研究发现,当经济下行压力加大时,资产减值项目与未来GDP增长的负向关系更加显著,而调整会计盈余与未来GDP增长的正向关系在不同经济运行状态下没有显著差异。文章的研究拓展了会计信息有用性的文献,且对宏观经济分析和预测具有重要的现实意义。
会计信息预测宏观经济增长的实现路径:盈余传导与风险感知
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参考文献
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引用本文
肖志超, 胡国强. 会计信息预测宏观经济增长的实现路径:盈余传导与风险感知[J]. 财经研究, 2018, 44(1): 61–74.
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