当前,以贸易保护主义为主要特征的“逆全球化”思潮涌现,国外的贸易保护措施对中国制造业的出口增长构成严重的威胁。那么,这些贸易保护措施对中国制造业的出口到底产生了怎样的影响?其内在机制是什么?文章采用2009−2011年GTA数据库与中国海关统计数据库的合并数据,从企业这一微观层面定量识别国外贸易保护措施对中国制造业出口的实际影响。研究发现:(1)国外贸易保护措施的实施显著地降低了受影响企业的出口规模,贸易保护措施的数量每增加1次,受影响企业的出口将下降17%左右;贸易保护强度每增加1个单位,受影响企业的出口将下降52%左右。(2)从影响机制看,国外贸易保护措施对制造业出口的抑制效应是通过降低出口的数量和质量来实现的。(3)贸易融资对制造业出口的边际影响最大,而贸易救济措施是对制造业出口整体影响最大的贸易保护措施。(4)国外贸易保护措施对外资企业、同质产品以及中间品出口的抑制作用更明显。文章的研究结论既为理解贸易保护主义的危害提供了经验证据,也为中国在持续推动对外开放背景下如何应对贸易保护壁垒提供了决策依据。
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引用本文
彭冬冬, 罗明津. 国外贸易保护措施对中国制造业出口的影响—来自企业层面的微观证据[J]. 财经研究, 2018, 44(3): 125–138.
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