6852 
7955美国特朗普政府退出TPP并未使得该协议完全废除，美国以外的成员国正在谋求签署“全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定” （CPTPP）。美国TPP政策的调整会给中国带来怎样的影响亟待评估。面对TPP的冲击，中国正在推进的“一带一路”倡议能否成为缓解TPP负面影响的应对举措呢？文章采用全球多区域CGE模型，对TPP和“一带一路”的经济影响分别进行量化评估，对比分析不同政策的国际经济效应。研究发现：（1）从实际GDP和居民福利来看，无论美国是否退出TPP，中国都是该战略的重要损害国。（2）从贸易畅通视角推进“一带一路”有助于沿线国家的经济增长和福利水平改善，能够大幅缓解TPP对中国经济的负面冲击。（3）“一带一路”有助于中国高耗能行业的出口，钢铁行业、纺织服装业和化工行业的出口扩张效应尤其明显。（4）“一带一路”实施对韩国的负面影响较大，因此韩国若能加入该倡议，将使其获得显著的经济增长和福利改善。文章的研究结论既对促进“一带一路”的发展和扩张有积极作用，也为化解中国高耗能行业的产能过剩提供了有益参考。
“一带一路”倡议能否缓解TPP对中国的负面影响？
摘要
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引用本文
崔连标, 洪雪雯, 宋马林. “一带一路”倡议能否缓解TPP对中国的负面影响？[J]. 财经研究, 2018, 44(8): 4-17.
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