277 
313作为后金融危机时代贷款损失拨备制度的重要改革，预期信用损失模型实施的核心在于引入前瞻性风险预估，实现了从“已发生损失”到“预期损失”的会计范式转变。而该项会计准则改革是否以及如何影响货币政策传导效率尚未引起充分关注。文章构建了一个银行局部均衡模型，阐释了预期信用损失模型的实施影响货币政策传导效率的机理，并将中国银行业自2018年起分批次实施预期信用损失模型视为一项准自然实验，采用渐进双重差分模型进行了因果识别。研究发现，预期信用损失模型的实施显著提升了货币政策传导效率。这一效应主要通过前瞻性拨备成本渠道实现，且该渠道的有效性依赖于拨备计提的充分性与及时性；同时，抵押品价值渠道与风险偏好渠道发挥了协同作用。上述效应在市场集中度高、内部治理有效、客户结构分散以及拨备监管压力大的银行中更明显。文章的研究为金融会计准则及货币政策、宏观审慎政策的协调配合提供了重要依据。
贷款损失拨备制度改革会影响货币政策传导效率吗？——来自中国银行业的证据
摘要
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何靖, 邓可斌. 贷款损失拨备制度改革会影响货币政策传导效率吗？——来自中国银行业的证据[J]. 财经研究, 2026, 52(6): 79-94.
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