The sustainability of fund for the basic pension insurance for enterprise employee is weakening in China with the current income and expenditure gap on the fund expanding year by year.Under different epidemic scenarios including epidemic-free scenario, low-risk scenario, medium-risk scenario and high-risk scenario, we use the econometric model and actuarial model to measure the income and expenditure balance of the fund of the basic pension insurance for enterprise employees from 2022 to 2051, and build a sustainable risk monitoring and warning system.
The results show that: First, for each increase in the risk level of the COVID-19 epidemic impact, the cumulative present value of fund income during the measurement period decreases by an average of 23.45%, the cumulative present value of fund expenditure decreases by an average of 7%, and the sum of the cumulative present value of fund balance decreases by an average of 59.76%. Second, under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, if effective measures are not taken, the cumulative balance of the basic pension insurance fund for enterprise employees will be exhausted range from 2030 to 2032, and the scale of the deficit will increase year by year. Third, this paper builds a sustainable risk monitoring and warning system by linking fund-raising risk, fund-accumulation risk and fund-payment risk.
The marginal contribution is as follows: First, this paper reasonably assesses the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on fund income and expenditure by the DID method and scenario analysis. Second, this paper establishes a monitoring and warning system for the sustainable risk of pension fund in a trinity of “raising, accumulation and payment”. It not only clarifies the theoretical construction of warning system, but also performs empirical analysis. Third, this paper proposes a risk prevention and control system of “forecast, warning and pre-control”. Based on the forecast results of fund income and expenditure, it analyzes the sustainable risk monitoring and warning system, and develops the pre-control countermeasure through adjusting warning sources. This paper not only improves the pension fund risk prevention and control system, but also provides reference for effectively dealing with preventing and defusing major risks.