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22222022年末中央经济工作会议将防范化解地方政府债务风险与加强对融资平台公司的综合治理提升到了极为重要的高度。厘清政府隐性担保预期对城投债的影响，有利于在防范金融风险和防范地方债务风险之间取得平衡，促进金融与经济的高质量发展。基于外生政策冲击的视角，文章探究了政府隐性担保预期的下降对城投债流动性的影响。研究发现，在2014年打破刚兑政策出台后，政府隐性担保预期的下降导致城投债流动性显著恶化，而违约风险是政府隐性担保影响城投债流动性的重要渠道。研究还显示，打破刚兑政策带来的城投债流动性下降，显著提升了城投公司的债务融资成本以及城投债的二级市场信用利差。研究结论对于防控金融市场风险、逐步推进削弱政府隐性担保相关政策以稳定市场预期具有一定的参考价值。
政府隐性担保预期对城投债流动性的影响研究
摘要
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引用本文
刘珈言, 郭丽虹. 政府隐性担保预期对城投债流动性的影响研究[J]. 上海财经大学学报, 2024, 26(2): 65-79.
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