Social Structure Imbalance of Chinese Population: Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Analysis

Jin Weidong, Gong Jiejing, Yin Yilong

Journal of Finance and Economics Vol. 43, Issue 04, pp. 17 - 30 (2017)  DOI:10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.2017.04.002

Abstract

With constant reduction in fertility rate, China is not only faced with the plight of population growth, but also has a serious imbalance in the social structure of population. Based on educational resource dilution theory, this paper theoretically and empirically analyzes the interaction mechanism between education and fertility rate & the law of population development, and finally demonstrates the imbalance of social structure of population and its forming mechanism. It comes to the conclusions as follows:firstly, on the one hand, the interaction mechanism between education and fertility rate can lead to the gradual rise in fertility rate and thereby make population development enter into a high fertility trap; on the other hand, it may cause fertility rate continue to decline and fall into the trap of low fertility, finally forming the "Z" pattern of population development, namely at middle education level education is significantly negatively related with fertility rate, but at higher or lower education levels there is no significant correlation between education and fertility; secondly, owing to obvious urban-rural, regional and ethnic differences in education development, affected by the "Z" law of population development, all residents are bound to gradually be divided into two categories, the fertility rate of residents will differentiate high and low ends, and this development of population will lead to the imbalance of the population of urban and rural structure, regional structure, national structure and quality structure. Furthermore, based on nationwide census county-level data, this paper uses instrumental variables method and Hausman-Taylor estimation method to examine the "Z" law of population development and resulting imbalance of population social structure. It not only enriches current population structure research, but also has important implications for the reform of population and education in China.

Keywords

education; population inhibitory effect; population development rule; population structure