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①“牛鞭效应”是对需求信息在供应链中扭曲传递的一种形象描述。其基本思想是:当供应链各节点企业只根据来自其相邻的下游企业的需求信息进行生产或者供应决策时,被扭曲的需求信息会逆供应链而上,而且扭曲度会逐级放大。试想,顾客手中拿着一根鞭子,他们的购买心理不断变化,鞭子也不停地跟着摆动,鞭子越长摆动幅度就越大。美国斯坦福大学全球供应链管理论坛创办人兼主持人李效良(Hau L.Lee)教授是最早将这种现象称为“牛鞭效应”的学者。他曾解释说,牛鞭效应是指特定产品的顾客需求变动不大,但库存和延期交货波动水平却相当大的现象。参见Hau L Lee,V Padmanabhan,and Seungjin Whang.Information distortion in a supplychain:The bullwhip effect[J].Management Science,1997,43(4):546-558。