中国小微企业信用违约影响因素的实证检验——来自某国有银行地区分行的证据
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上海财经大学学报 2015 年 第 17 卷第 06 期, 页码：67 - 79
摘要
参考文献
摘要
小微企业融资难问题不解决将直接影响"大众创业、万众创新"国家战略的实现.融资的一个主要问题是违约风险,但由于难以获得微观数据,相关实证研究极少.文章运用某国有商业银行地区分行数据,检验了小微企业信用违约的影响因素.结果显示,金额越大、信用等级越高,违约概率越小;流动资金类、进出口和国内贸易融资与违约概率显著正相关;所处行业对违约概率有一定的显著影响;国有企业违约概率显著;而期限、利率、规模对违约影响不显著.这些发现为解决我国小微企业融资难找到一些有意义的线索和途径,无论对商业银行风险控制、小微企业健康发展还是对监管部门疏通小微企业融资渠道均具有现实的促进作用.
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[2] 何光辉,杨咸月.融资约束对企业生产率的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2012, (5).
[3] 刘方根.商业银行贷款违约风险和追偿风险影响因素实证研究[D].浙江大学博士论文,2008.
[4] 刘京军,秦宛顺.上市公司陷入财务困境可能性研究[J].金融研究, 2006,(11).
[5] 李建军,张雨晨.众筹与小微经济体融资的匹配性——基于信息搜寻的视角[J].河北经贸大学学报,2014,(6).
[6] Altman E. I. Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy[J]. Journal of Finance, 1968, 23:589-610.
[7] Beaver W. H. Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure [J]. Journal of Accounting Research, 1966,4:71 -111.
[8] Behr P., Sonnekalb S. The Effect of Information Sharing between Lenders on Access to Credit, Cost of Credit, and Loan Performance-Evidence from a Credit Registry Introduction[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance, 2012, 36: 3017-3032.
[9] Brown M., Jappelli T., Pagano M. Information Sharing and Credit: Firm-Level Evidence from Transition Countries[J]. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 2009, 18:151-172.
[10] DeYoung R., Glennon D., Nigro P. J. Borrower-lender Distance,Credit Scoring, and Loan Performance: Evidence from Informational-Opaque small Business Borrowers [J]. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 2010, 17:113-143.
[11] Dierkes M., Erner C., Langer T., Norden L. Business Credit Information Sharing and Default Risk of Private Firms [J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2013, 37:2867-2878.
[12] Doblas-Madrid A., Minetti R. Sharing Information in the Credit Market: Contract-level Evidence from U.S. Firms[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2013, 109:198-223.
[13] Evelyn H. Are Credit Scoring Models Sensitive With Respect to Default Definitions? Evidence from the Austrian Market[D]. Dissertation of Doctor,University of Vienna,2003.
[14] Fidrmuc J., Hainz C. Default Rates in the Loan Market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia[J]. Economic Systems, 2010, 34:133-147.
[15] Karapetyan A., Stacescu B. Information Sharing and Information Acquisition in Credit Markets [R]. Working Paper,Norges Bank, 2010.
[16] Padilla A., Pagano M. Sharing Default Information as a Borrower Discipline Device[J]. European Economic Review 2000, 44:1951-1980.
[17] Stiglitz J. E., Weiss A. Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information [J]. American Economic Review, 1981, 71:393-410.
[18] Tsai H., Chang Y., Hsiao P. What Drives Foreign Expansion of the Top 100 Multinational Banks? The Role of the Credit Reporting System[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,2011, 35:588-605.
引用本文
何光辉, 杨咸月. 中国小微企业信用违约影响因素的实证检验——来自某国有银行地区分行的证据[J]. 上海财经大学学报, 2015, 17(6): 67–79.
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