政策不确定性与企业投资行为——基于省级地方官员变更的实证检验
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财经研究 2013 年 第 39 卷第 02 期, 页码：82 - 92
摘要
参考文献
摘要
基于我国省级主要官员变更事件,文章检验了区域政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响。研究发现,预期官员变更当年政策的不确定性,企业会显著减少当年投资,而这一影响主要体现在省级控制的国有企业,当经济处于上行期或管理层不具有政治身份时,换届的经济后果更加明显。进一步研究显示,官员变更会影响投资者定价,上市公司股票收益波动率显著提高。实证结果表明,地方政府政策是影响经济资源分配的重要因素,降低政策不确定性有利于本地上市公司投资效率的提高。
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[2]王贤彬,徐现祥.地方官员来源、去向、任期与经济增长——来自中国省长省委书记的证据[J].管理世界,2008,(3):16-26.
[3]夏立军,陈信元.市场化进程、国企改革策略与公司治理结构的内生决定[J].经济研究,..2007,(7):82-95.
[4]夏立军,陆铭,余为政.政企纽带与跨省投资——来自中国上市公司的经验证据[J].管理世界,2011,(7):128-140.
[5]辛清泉,林斌,王彦超.政府控制、经理薪酬与资本投资[J].经济研究,2007,(8):110-122.
[6]辛清泉,郑国坚,杨德明.企业集团、政府控制与投资效率[J].金融研究,2007,(10):123-142.
[7]张军,高远.官员任期、异地交流与经济增长——来自省级经验证据[J].经济研究,2007,(11):91-103.
[8]Acemoglu D,Johnson S,Robinson J.The colonial origins of comparative development:An empirical investigation[J].American Economic Review,2001,91(5):1369-1401.
[9]Bernanke B.Irreversibility,uncertainty and cyclical investment[J].The QuarterlyJournal of Economics,1983,98(1):85-106.
[10]Chen K,Yuan H.Earnings management and capital resource allocation:Evidencefrom China’s accounting-based regulation of rights issues[J].The Accounting Review,2004,79(3):645-665.
[11]Chen S,Sun Z,Tang S,et al.Government intervention and investment efficiency:Ev-idence from China[J].Journal of Corporate Finance,2011,17(2):259-271.
[12]Fisman R.Estimating the value of political connections[J].American Economic Re-view,2001,91(4):1095-1102.
[13]Ingersoll J,Ross S.Waiting to invest:Investment and uncertainty[J].The Journal ofBusiness,1992,65(1):1-29
[14]Julio B,Yook Y.Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles[J].The Jour-nal of Finance,2012,67(1):45-84.
[15]Li H,Zhou L.Political turnover and economic performance:The incentive role of per-sonnel control in China[J].Journal of Public Economics,2005,89(9-10):1743-1762.
[16]Rajan R,Zingales L.The great reversals:The politics of financial development in thetwentieth century[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2003,69(1):5-50.
[17]Rodrik D.Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries[J].Jour-nal of Development Economics,1991,36:229-242.
[18]Xu Chenggang.The fundamental institutions of China’s reforms and development[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2011,49(4):1076-1151.
[19]Xu Liping,Wang Jingwei,Xin Yu.Government control,uncertainty,and investmentdecisions in China’s listed companies[J].China Journal of Accounting Research,2010,3(1):131-157.
引用本文
贾倩, 孔祥, 孙铮. 政策不确定性与企业投资行为——基于省级地方官员变更的实证检验[J]. 财经研究, 2013, 39(2): 82–92.
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