作为我国资本市场对外开放的又一里程碑,沪港通的成功开启不仅对沪港两市的联动性产生了深远影响,还给我国资本市场带来了一系列连锁的市场效应。文章利用复杂网络中的MST与PMFG算法检验分析了沪港通所带来的这一系列效应,并采用了事件分析法和Placebo检验法验证分析结论的稳健性。研究表明:(1)在沪港通宣告前和开通后,市场内的关联度明显大于市场间的关联度,两地市场存在一定的分离,而在公示期市场内的关联度明显小于市场间的关联度,市场在一定程度上出现融合。(2)在公示期间两地资本市场的关联程度增加,市场表现出了显著的预期效应。(3)开通后两地市场关联度在短期内呈现增加趋势或维持在较高水平,市场呈现出了一定的短期套利效应;在内地单方面政策的影响下,两地市场关联度降低,市场展现出了相应的政策效应。该结论将对资本市场中投资者的理性投资具有一定的启发和指导意义。
资本市场对外开放过程中的预期效应、套利效应与政策效应——基于沪港通事件的分析
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引用本文
方艳, 贺学会, 吴文彬. 资本市场对外开放过程中的预期效应、套利效应与政策效应——基于沪港通事件的分析[J]. 上海财经大学学报, 2018, 20(4): 93-110.
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