12449 
6433随着科技与知识加速更迭，以及社会环境不断变化，专业人员知识技能过时已成为威胁个体职业发展和组织生存竞争的重要因素。相关研究在国外已出现半个多世纪，取得了一定成果，但仍有诸多问题值得探讨，国内研究则十分罕见。本文回溯了专业人员过时研究的发展历程，从专业人员过时的概念、影响因素、发生机理、结果变量和应对策略等方面评述了已有研究，最后讨论了未来研究方向，以期引起国内学者对该问题的关注，并为后续研究奠定基础。
专业人员过时研究：理论溯源、现状总结与未来展望
摘要
参考文献
3 Allen J, De Grip A. Does skill obsolescence increase the risk of employment loss?[J]. Applied Economics, 2012, 44（25）: 3237–3245. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2011.570727
4 Aryee S. Combating obsolescence: Predictors of technical updating among engineers[J]. Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 1991, 8（2）: 103–119. DOI:10.1016/0923-4748(91)90025-M
5 Arvey R D, Neel C W. Motivation and obsolescence in engineers[J]. IEEE Engineering Management Review, 1978, 6（1）: 29–32. DOI:10.1109/EMR.1978.4306644
6 Butt T E, Camilleri M, Paul P, et al. Obsolescence types and the built environment–definitions and implications[J]. International Journal of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2015, 14（1）: 20–39. DOI:10.1504/IJESD.2015.066896
7 Chauhan S P, Chauhan D. Professional obsolescence: Causes and preventive measures[J]. Indian Journal of Industrial Relations, 2004, 39（3）: 347–363.
8 Chauhan S P, Chauhan D. Human obsolescence: A wake–up call to avert a crisis[J]. Global Business Review, 2008, 9（1）: 85–100. DOI:10.1177/097215090700900106
9 Chauhan S P, Chauhan D. Are you on the verge of obsolescence?[J]. Indian Journal of Industrial Relations, 2009, 44（4）: 646–659.
10 Dalton G W, Thompson P H. Accelerating obsolescence of older engineers[J]. Harvard Business Review, 1971, 49（5）: 57–67.
11 de Grip A. Evaluating human capital obsolescence[R]. Brussels: Human Capital and Labour Market Performance, 2004.
12 De Grip A, Van Loo J. The economics of skills obsolescence: A review[A]. De Grip A, Van Loo J, Mayhew K. The economics of skills obsolescence[M]. Greenwich: JAI Press, 2002: 1–26.
13 Dubin S S. Obsolescence or lifelong education: A choice for the professional[J]. American Psychologist, 1972, 27（5）: 486–498. DOI:10.1037/h0033050
14 Dubin S S, Cohen D M. Motivation to update from a systems approach[J]. Journal of Engineering Education, 1970, 60（5）: 366–368.
15 Feldmann H. Technological unemployment in industrial countries[J]. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 2013, 23（5）: 1099–1126. DOI:10.1007/s00191-013-0308-6
16 Fossum J A, Arvey R D, Paradise C A, et al. Modeling the skills obsolescence process: A psychological/economic integration[J]. Academy of Management Review, 1986, 11（2）: 362–374.
17 Harel G H, Conen L K. Expectancy theory applied to the process of professional Obsolescence[J]. Public Personnel Management, 1982, 11（1）: 13–21. DOI:10.1177/009102608201100103
18 Jones A N, Cooper C L. Combating managerial obsolescence[M]. Oxford: Phillip Allan, 1980.
19 Joseph D, Ang S. The threat-rigidity model of professional obsolescence and its impact on occupational mobility behaviors of IT professionals[A]. Proceedings of the Twenty-Second conference on information systems[C]. New Orleans, Louisiana, 2001.
20 Joseph D, Kuan Koh C S. Organization support as a moderator in coping with the threat of professional obsolescence[A]. Proceedings of the seventeenth Americas conference on information systems[C]. Paper 120. Detroit, Michigan: Association for Information Systems, 2011.
21 Joseph D, Tan M L, Ang S. Is updating play or work? The mediating role of updating orientation in linking threat of professional obsolescence to turnover/turnaway intentions[J]. International Journal of Social and Organizational Dynamics in IT, 2011, 1（4）: 37–47. DOI:10.4018/IJSODIT
22 Kaufman H G. Obsolescence and professional career development[M]. New York: AMACOM, 1974.
23 Kaufman H G. Technical obsolescence: An empirical analysis of its causes and how engineers cope with it[A]. Proceeding of the 86th annual conference of the American society for engineering education[C]. Washington: ASEE, 1978: 194–206.
24 Kaufman H G. Obsolescence of technical professionals: A measure and a model[J]. Applied Psychology, 1989, 38（1）: 73–85. DOI:10.1111/apps.1989.38.issue-1
25 Kaufman H G. An integrated talent management system for maintaining an up-to-date technical workforce[A]. Akhilesh K. Emerging dimensions of technology management[M]. New Delhi, India: Springer, 2013: 73–86.
26 Kooij D, de Lange A, Jansen P, et al. Older workers’ motivation to continue to work: Five meanings of age: A conceptual review[J]. Journal of Managerial Psychology, 2008, 23（4）: 364–394. DOI:10.1108/02683940810869015
27 Kozlowski S W J, Farr J L. An integrative model of updating and performance[J]. Human Performance, 1988, 1（1）: 5–29. DOI:10.1207/s15327043hup0101_1
28 Kozlowski S W J, Hults B M. An exploration of climates for technical updating and performance[J]. Personnel Psychology, 1987, 40（3）: 539–563. DOI:10.1111/peps.1987.40.issue-3
29 Lovász A, Rigó M. Vintage effects, aging and productivity[J]. Labour Economics, 2013, 22: 47–60. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2012.08.005
30 Murillo I P. Human capital obsolescence: Some evidence for Spain[J]. International Journal of Manpower, 2011, 32（4）: 426–445. DOI:10.1108/01437721111148540
31 Pazy A. The threat of professional obsolescence: How do professionals at different career stages experience it and cope with it?[J]. Human Resource Management, 1990, 29（3）: 251–269. DOI:10.1002/(ISSN)1099-050X
32 Pazy A. Cognitive schemata of professional obsolescence[J]. Human Relations, 1994, 47（10）: 1167–1199. DOI:10.1177/001872679404701002
33 Pazy A. Concept and career-stage differentiation in obsolescence research[J]. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 1996, 17（1）: 59–78. DOI:10.1002/(ISSN)1099-1379
34 Pazy A. Actual and attributed schemas of professional obsolescence and updating: A comparison of managers and technical professionals[J]. The Journal of High Technology Management Research, 1997, 8（1）: 21–35. DOI:10.1016/S1047-8310(97)90012-2
35 Pazy A. Updating in response to the experience of lacking knowledge[J]. Applied Psychology, 2004, 53（3）: 436–452. DOI:10.1111/apps.2004.53.issue-3
39 Setor T K, Joseph D, Srivastava S C. Professional obsolescence in IT: The relationships between the threat of professional obsolescence, coping and psychological strain[A]. Proceedings of the 2015 ACM SIGMIS conference on computers and people research[M]. Newport Beach, California, USA: ACM, 2015a.
40 Shearer R L, Steger J A. Manpower obsolescence: A new definition and empirical investigation of personal variables[J]. Academy of Management Journal, 1975, 18（2）: 263–275. DOI:10.2307/255529
41 Smith E P. Measuring professional obsolescence: A half-life model for the physician[J]. Academy of Management Review, 1978, 3（4）: 914–917.
42 Tugwell R G. The theory of occupational obsolescence[J]. Political Science Quarterly, 1931, 46（2）: 171–227. DOI:10.2307/2142744
43 Weber S. Human capital depreciation and education level[J]. International Journal of Manpower, 2014, 35（5）: 613–642. DOI:10.1108/IJM-05-2014-0122
44 Zhang X N, Ryan S D, Prybutok V R, Kappelman L. Perceived obsolescence, organizational embeddedness, and turnover of IT workers: An empirical study[J]. ACM SIGMIS Database: The DATABASE for Advances in Information Systems, 2012, 43（4）: 12–32. DOI:10.1145/2398834
引用本文
岳林洋, 黄维德. 专业人员过时研究：理论溯源、现状总结与未来展望[J]. 外国经济与管理, 2017, 39(11): 90–102.
导出参考文献，格式为：
上一篇：专利是一个好的创新测量指标吗？
下一篇：大学生机会型创业意愿形成机理研究
