优化居民收入分布不仅有助于实现共同富裕,而且是降低银行经营风险的重要路径。文章采用中等收入群体的收入份额衡量居民收入分布结构特征,拓展了Kumhof和Rancière的金融脆弱性分析框架,分析收入份额变化对银行稳健性的影响及其作用机制,并结合2004—2022年58个国家的面板数据对理论机制进行实证检验。研究发现:收入份额对银行稳健性的影响机制存在两条路径。一条路径是中等收入群体收入份额下降后,为保持支出水平而借贷消费,进而推升信贷规模,促使银行稳健性上升,形成“收入效应”;另一条路径则是中等收入群体收入份额下降致使信贷主体信贷状况恶化,坏账率提高,对银行稳健性产生负面影响,形成“损失效应”。上述两种效应的净效应最终决定银行稳健性的变化方向。分类回归结果表明,相比于中等收入群体收入份额较高的国家,收入份额更低的国家一旦收入份额继续下降,则银行稳健性恶化速度将会快速增加。异质性分析发现,储蓄在影响机制传导过程中有重要调节作用,其在低储蓄率和高储蓄率国家中均可以对收入份额下降带来的银行稳健性恶化产生缓冲作用,且在高储蓄率国家中效果更为显著。文章为研究中等收入群体影响银行稳健性的传导机制提供了理论参照和经验证据。
居民收入分布与银行稳健性:理论框架与跨国证据
摘要
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引用本文
张冀, 马榕. 居民收入分布与银行稳健性:理论框架与跨国证据[J]. 财经研究, 2026, 52(2): 34-48.
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