6558 
7062二孩政策是中国促进人口结构优化与经济社会发展的一项重要公共政策。利用中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）的四期数据，文章评估了“单独二孩”和“全面二孩”政策对家庭生育与消费的影响。研究发现：（1）“单独二孩”政策对单独家庭的二孩生育行为没有产生显著性影响，这一结果支持了“单独遇冷”的学界共识；（2）“全面二孩”政策对非独家庭的二孩生育产生了微弱的影响，政策实施后，非独家庭生育二孩的概率相比政策前的所有家庭都提高了约2.3%；（3）“单独二孩”政策并没有对非独家庭的消费产生影响，但是“全面二孩”政策显著降低了生育二孩的非独家庭的消费；（4）从家庭消费结构来看，生育二孩的非独家庭的发展和享受型消费明显下降，但是生存型消费并没有明显降低；（5）房贷对生育二孩的非独家庭的消费存在一定的抑制效应；“全面二孩”政策主要影响生育二孩的低收入非独家庭和“体制外”非独家庭的消费，对高收入非独家庭和“体制内”非独家庭的消费则没有影响。文章的研究为评估二孩政策的实施效果及对家庭消费的影响提供了经验证据。
二孩政策对家庭二孩生育与消费的影响研究——基于CFPS数据的考察
摘要
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引用本文
汪伟, 杨嘉豪, 吴坤, 等. 二孩政策对家庭二孩生育与消费的影响研究——基于CFPS数据的考察[J]. 财经研究, 2020, 46(12): 79-93.
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