【刊出新闻】《财经研究》2026年第8期目录
本期共 11 篇文章
全球供应链风险、国产替代进口与上游供应商创新
摘要 · ABSTRACT
在全球生产分工深化与进口中间品供给波动的背景下，文章基于FactSet Revere全球供应链数据库、中国海关进口数据库与IncoPat专利数据库，构建“下游客户—上游供应商—年份”层面的三维面板数据，考察下游客户所面临的全球供应链风险对国内上游供应商创新的影响效应与作用机制。研究结果表明：下游客户所面临的全球供应链风险会促使其将中间品采购由进口转向国内市场，进而提升上游供应商的创新产出，从而证实风险传导中存在“倒逼创新”效应；机制分析表明，本土市场需求扩张、产业链协同创新与政府政策扶持共同驱动上游供应商创新水平的提升，而企业研发人员动态配置与海外知识产权保护则形成内外部双轮驱动，共同激励上游供应商的创新水平提升；异质性分析结果表明，该“倒逼”效应在外资企业、一般贸易企业与高技术水平及高价值链地位行业中更为显著；由外部风险驱动的上游供应商创新效应对其下游客户创新水平并不存在逆向溢出效应，但会沿供应链网络向上扩散，显著推动二级与三级供应商的创新水平提升，从而揭示了超越直接关联的网络化创新溢出效应。文章从供应链视角深化了外部冲击与企业创新的相关研究，并为在复杂外部环境下通过需求侧政策、链上协同与人才配置来激活上游创新、实现高质量发展提供了理论依据与政策参考。
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Abstract
Against the backdrop of rising global protectionism and increasingly stringent export controls on critical technologies, downstream firms in China face heightened risks of disruptions in the supply of key intermediate inputs and breakdowns in production chains. To enhance the resilience and security of industrial and supply chains, the Chinese government has continuously promoted the domestic substitution of critical core technologies and key inputs. These policies encourage downstream firms to redirect part of their procurement demand toward domestic upstream suppliers, thereby generating demand-side incentives for upstream technological upgrading. Using data from the FactSet Revere global supply chain database, China Customs import records, and IncoPat patent data, this paper constructs a panel dataset of downstream customer–upstream supplier–year to investigate the impact of downstream customers’ global supply chain risks on innovation by upstream suppliers. The results show that global supply chain risks significantly promote innovation by upstream suppliers. Mechanism testing indicates that this effect operates primarily through expanded domestic market demand, enhanced customer–supplier collaborative innovation, and government support. The effect is stronger for foreign-invested firms, general-trade firms, high-tech firms, and firms occupying relatively advanced positions in global value chains. Further analysis shows that the innovation response does not significantly affect downstream customers themselves, but diffuses along the supply chain to second- and third-tier suppliers, generating multi-tier innovation spillovers. This paper makes the following contributions: First, drawing on micro-level matched data, it develops measurements of innovation by upstream suppliers and downstream customers’ exposure to global supply chain risks. Second, it incorporates global supply chain risks into the analysis of innovation by upstream suppliers, demonstrating how external supply shocks are transmitted through demand-side channels within domestic production networks and subsequently shape upstream innovation. Third, it empirically examines the roles of domestic market demand, collaborative innovation, and government support, while further exploring the effects of the dynamic allocation of R&D personnel and the strength of overseas intellectual property protection. This paper provides policy implications for stimulating upstream innovation and promoting high-quality development through demand inducement, supply-chain collaboration, and talent allocation in an increasingly complex external environment.
信贷空间配置效率、技术创新与全球价值链攀升
摘要 · ABSTRACT
文章通过构建三阶段理论框架系统分析了信贷空间配置效率通过技术创新推动企业全球价值链攀升的作用机制。文章基于中国微观数据的实证检验表明：提高信贷空间配置效率将显著促进本地企业全球价值链攀升，该效应主要通过激发技术创新而非要素积累实现；其对原始创新、改进型创新与创新质量均有显著正向影响，且该效应集中于技术密集型行业、长期贷款占比高及创新活跃的大型企业。进一步分析表明，周边信贷配置改善通过溢出效应促进本地技术创新；原始创新的外部性强于改进型创新，经济与产业相似度强化此溢出效应；高铁连通性则引发“虹吸效应”与“挤出效应”；信贷空间配置效率提高有效缓解了私营企业融资约束，同时抑制了传统制造业国企低效扩张。文章的研究为优化信贷空间配置、促进中国企业全球价值链攀升提供了理论依据与政策启示。
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Abstract
Against the backdrop of Global Value Chain (GVC) restructuring, the spatial misallocation of credit constrains enterprises’ R&D and value chain upgrading. This paper constructs a three-stage theoretical framework—production function expansion, an export domestic value-added ratio (DVAR) model, and short-term market equilibrium—to elucidate how credit spatial allocation efficiency enhances DVAR via technology innovation, and empirically tests it using multi-source Chinese micro-level data. The results show that: First, improving credit spatial allocation efficiency significantly promotes GVC upgrading, primarily by stimulating innovation rather than factor accumulation. Second, this effect is concentrated in technology-intensive industries, samples with high long-term loan shares, and large innovation-active enterprises. Third, improved credit allocation in neighboring regions spurs local innovation through spatial spillovers, with original innovation exhibiting stronger externalities than improved innovation; economic and industrial similarity strengthens this spillover, whereas high-speed rail connectivity triggers siphon and crowding-out effects. This paper makes the following marginal contributions: First, it clarifies the theoretical pathway through which credit spatial allocation efficiency drives GVC upgrading via technology innovation and characterizes the spatial externality heterogeneity of this mechanism. Second, it constructs a quantitative framework for credit allocation efficiency based on economy-wide spatial Pareto optimality, offering a tool for correcting spatial credit misallocation. Third, it reveals the heterogeneous effects of spatially-linked credit allocation, providing micro-mechanism evidence for regional coordinated development and financial supply-side reform.
标准化治理是否能“稳外资”？
摘要 · ABSTRACT
“稳外资”作为加快构建“双循环”新发展格局的重要内容，是加快全国统一大市场建设、助推中国式现代化发展的必由之路。为此，文章利用2016年起逐步推行的“国家标准化综合改革试点”政策，考察了标准化治理影响“稳外资”的机理、效应及作用机制。研究表明，标准化治理显著促进了“稳外资”，且该结果具有稳健性。机制检验显示，优化产出水平、扩大生产分工以及提升政府管理效率是标准化治理促进“稳外资”的重要机制。进一步分析显示，标准化治理对传统口岸城市、非老工业城市以及外围城市“稳外资”的促进作用强于非传统口岸城市、老工业城市以及中心城市；标准化治理能够与科技化、数字化、绿色化形成政策协同效应，进而强化“稳外资”；本地区“稳外资”对于其他地区“稳外资”具有正向溢出效应，而标准化治理对“稳外资”的促进作用主要集中在本地区而非其他地区。文章的研究结论对于进一步推进中国现代标准化治理和利用标准化视角全面促进“稳外资”提供了决策依据。
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Abstract
As a key component of accelerating the establishment of a new development paradigm of “dual circulation”, “stabilizing foreign investment” constitutes an essential pathway for building a unified national market and advancing the Chinese path to modernization. Standardized governance serves as a critical institutional instrument that effectively removes market bottlenecks, harmonizes regulatory frameworks across different sectors, and enables high-standard institutional opening to the global economy. Given its fundamental role in shaping the business environment and facilitating rule-based economic integration, the impact of standardized governance on “stabilizing foreign investment” warrants in-depth investigation. Drawing on the staggered and progressive implementation of the “National Standardization Comprehensive Reform Pilot” policy since 2016, this paper employs panel data collected from 276 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2006 to 2022 to examine the underlying mechanisms, overall effects, and operational pathways. Empirical findings indicate that standardized governance significantly promotes foreign investment stabilization across the sample cities. Mechanism testing further reveals that this effect operates through three channels: optimizing regional output levels, expanding the scope of production specialization, and improving the efficiency of government administrative management. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the positive impact of standardized governance is notably stronger in traditional port cities, non-old industrial cities, and peripheral cities than in their respective counterparts. In addition, standardized governance generates significant policy synergies with technological, digital, and green development, further reinforcing its overall effect. Regarding spatial dynamics, while “stabilizing foreign investment” in one region can yield positive spillover benefits for other regions nationwide, the promoting effect of standardized governance remains concentrated within the local city itself, without substantial cross-regional spillover. The marginal contributions of this paper are threefold: First, it integrates standardized governance and “stabilizing foreign investment” into a unified analytical framework, substantially enriching the theoretical literature. Second, leveraging the quasi-natural experiment of the staggered pilot policy, it conducts rigorous empirical research using city-level panel data, precisely identifying causal effects and mechanisms. Third, it examines heterogeneity, institutional synergies, and spatial spillover patterns, offering practical pathways for optimizing the role of standardized governance in “stabilizing foreign investment” during the new stage of development.
人工智能、任务重构与技术红利的分配
摘要 · ABSTRACT
人工智能（AI）是推动全要素生产率增长的重要力量，但其创造的技术红利如何分配还不清晰。文章利用中国A股上市公司年报文本与网络招聘平台数据，从任务重构视角考察AI影响企业全要素生产率的微观机制及其分配后果。研究发现，AI通过任务替代与任务拓展双重路径显著提高企业全要素生产率。尽管这两条路径均能促进全要素生产率增长，但其收入分配效应呈现显著差异：任务拓展提高工资水平与劳动收入份额，任务替代则显著降低工资水平与劳动收入份额。从整体上看，任务替代对劳动收入的负向影响大于任务拓展的正向影响，这导致AI技术红利对资本影响更大，并带来潜在的分配失衡风险。异质性分析显示，在服务业企业以及位于就业政策导向相对较弱城市的企业中，AI的生产率提升效应更强，对劳动收入份额的抑制作用也更明显。文章从任务重构视角深化了对AI生产率效应及其分配后果的认识，为兼顾技术创新与收入分配公平提供了经验证据。
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Abstract
Artificial intelligence (AI) not only improves production efficiency but also reshapes the structure of job tasks and the distribution of income between labor and capital. AI can both substitute for existing tasks and create new ones, so different forms of task restructuring may have divergent effects on productivity and income distribution. Identifying the channels through which AI generates productivity gains and affects their distribution is therefore essential for reconciling technological progress with employment stability and income equality. Drawing on the annual reports of China’s A-share listed companies and data from online recruitment platforms, this paper uses text analysis and task matching to measure firm-level AI adoption and job-level task substitution, task expansion, and posted wages. Using an instrumental-variable approach, it examines AI’s productivity effects, task-restructuring mechanisms, and distributional consequences. The results show that AI increases firm TFP through both task substitution and task expansion, although the two channels have opposing distributional effects. Task expansion increases posted wages and the labor income share of non-executive employees, whereas task substitution significantly reduces both. Because the negative effect of task substitution on labor income outweighs the positive effect of task expansion, AI-generated productivity gains disproportionately accrue to capital. These effects are more pronounced in service-sector firms, which experience both larger productivity gains and a greater decline in the labor income share of non-executive employees. This paper develops measures that link firm-level AI adoption to job-level task restructuring. It explains both the generation and distribution of AI-generated productivity gains by distinguishing between the channels of task substitution and task expansion, thereby providing new micro-level empirical evidence on the economic effects of AI. The findings suggest that policymakers should improve education and vocational training systems, encourage firms to adopt human–AI collaboration and task-expanding applications, and strengthen labor protection and benefit-sharing mechanisms to enable workers to share more fully in the productivity gains generated by AI.
人工智能发展与女性生育意愿：促进还是抑制？
摘要 · ABSTRACT
人工智能技术的迅猛发展对劳动力市场产生了深远影响，并可能进一步重塑个体生育意愿，对社会代际更替与可持续发展构成挑战。文章基于2014年、2018年和2022年中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，考察了人工智能发展对女性生育意愿的影响。研究发现，人工智能发展显著降低了女性的理想子女数。机制分析表明，人工智能发展会通过经济、家庭决策、家庭关系及文化观念等多重渠道影响女性生育意愿。在经济层面，人工智能通过促进女性就业并提高其相对收入，提高了生育的机会成本；在家庭决策层面，人工智能发展降低了男性配偶的生育意愿，并通过家庭内部协商机制传导至女性；在家庭关系层面，人工智能发展降低了女性与家庭成员的互动频率及婚姻满意度，使女性在生育上更为审慎；在文化观念层面，人工智能重塑了女性的生育与性别角色观念，进而推动生育观念由责任向个人选择转变。异质性分析发现，人工智能对高学历女性生育意愿和二孩及以上生育意愿的影响更大。进一步分析发现，配偶家务参与度的提升以及社会托育服务的完善，能够有效缓解人工智能对女性生育意愿的负面影响。文章为理解技术变革背景下生育率持续下降提供了微观证据，为在技术快速迭代背景下构建生育友好型社会提供了政策启示。
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Abstract
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has profoundly reshaped the labor market and may further affect fertility intentions, which poses significant challenges to intergenerational renewal and sustainable development. Using data from the 2014, 2018, and 2022 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper examines the impact of AI development on women’s fertility intentions. The study constructs regional-level indicators of AI development by combining the number of AI patents granted across industries with each industry’s regional employment share in the base period. To address potential omitted-variable bias and reverse causality in model estimation, we further construct instrumental variables based on the number of AI patents granted across industries in the United States. The results show that AI development significantly reduces women’s ideal number of children. Mechanism testing shows that AI reduces women’s fertility intentions through four channels. Economically, it increases women’s employment and relative income, raising the opportunity cost of childbearing. In household decision-making, it lowers male spouses’ fertility preferences and transmits this effect to women through intra-household bargaining. In family relationships, it reduces family interactions and marital satisfaction, making women more cautious in their fertility decisions. In cultural norms and values, it reshapes women's fertility norms and gender-role perceptions, turning childbearing from a perceived obligation into a personal choice. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect of AI is stronger among highly-educated women and for the intention to have two or more children. Further evidence indicates that greater spousal involvement in housework and better access to social childcare services mitigate the negative effect of AI on women’s fertility intentions. This paper enriches the literature on the socioeconomic effects of AI and deepens the understanding of the determinants of fertility intentions. It also examines effective measures to enhance women’s fertility intentions under the impact of AI technology. The findings provide empirical evidence and policy implications for building a fertility-friendly society and formulating long-term policies to address demographic transformation in the era of rapid AI development.
人工智能与企业资产结构配置
摘要 · ABSTRACT
在全球产业链智能化重组与产业数字化融合的双重变革背景下，人工智能正通过技术赋能和效率变革重塑企业的资产结构配置逻辑，成为企业资源配置的核心技术引擎。文章以2009—2024年A股上市公司为样本，探究了人工智能对企业资产结构配置的影响机制。研究发现，人工智能有助于抑制企业资产结构错配，推动资产结构合理配置。机制分析表明，人工智能通过抑制战略偏差、降低代理成本以及提升数字技术应用水平，抑制企业资产结构错配。异质性分析显示，对于所在地区产业转型升级程度和金融科技水平较高的企业，以及非“多言少行”、数字基础设施建设水平较高、数据资产较多或分析师关注度较高的企业，人工智能对资产结构错配的抑制作用更加明显。文章的研究为深入理解人工智能对资产结构配置的影响机制、提升人工智能应用效能、优化企业资产结构配置、助力企业高质量发展提供了经验证据和政策启示。
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Abstract
Under the dual background of global industrial chain intelligent restructuring and industrial-digital integration, artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the logic of corporate asset structure allocation and has become a core engine driving micro-level resource allocation. However, existing literature lacks systematic evidence on how AI affects corporate asset structure misallocation, especially the internal transmission mecha- nisms and heterogeneous conditions. Using a sample of China’s A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2024, this paper empirically examines the impact of AI on corporate asset structure allocation. The core explanatory variable is the AI application level measured by text analysis of annual reports, and the dependent variable is asset structure misallocation measured by the marginal product of capital deviation method. The results show that AI significantly reduces corporate asset structure misallocation, with an economic magnitude of 6.38% of the sample mean, indicating that AI helps firms allocate assets more reasonably. Mechanism testing shows that AI alleviates asset structure misallocation through three pathways: suppressing strategic deviation, lowering agency costs, and enhancing digital technology application. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the mitigating effect of AI on asset structure misallocation is more pronounced in firms located in regions with higher levels of industrial transformation and Fintech development, as well as in firms with higher digital infrastructure, more data assets, and higher analyst attention, and those characterized by “less talk but more action” in AI adoption. The marginal contributions of this paper are as follows: First, it enriches the micro-level research on the economic consequences of AI by directly linking AI to corporate asset structure optimization. Second, it opens the black box of internal mechanisms from the perspectives of strategic deviation, agency costs, and digital technology application. Third, it offers nuanced heterogeneous evidence to guide targeted policies. Based on these findings, policy recommendations include that governments should build AI application promotion platforms and provide low-cost solutions for SMEs, that firms should proactively integrate AI into asset management and reduce strategic bias, and that policies should prioritize regions and firms with favorable conditions while helping laggards strengthen digital foundations.
投资于人对居民消费的提振效应及机制研究
摘要 · ABSTRACT
消费不足是中国经济内需扩张的核心制约。在此背景下，政策导向正逐渐从投资于物转向投资于人。投资于人相关支出是否有效拉动了居民消费？为探究这一问题，文章在理论上分析了投资于人对居民消费的提振效应，并基于2011—2022年中国地级市面板数据构建双向固定效应模型进行了实证检验。研究发现，投资于人显著促进了居民消费增长。投资于人既通过释放预防性储蓄、缓解流动性约束直接拉动消费，也借助提升人力资本水平、增加可支配收入和增强创新能力等渠道间接发挥促进作用。异质性分析表明，投资于人对居民消费的提振效应在经济发展水平相对较低的地区更加显著。文章的研究结论为优化财政支出结构、通过人力资本投资释放消费潜力提供了经验证据，对推动经济增长向“消费驱动”转型具有重要的政策启示意义。
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Abstract
As the marginal benefits of traditional material capital investments decline, the 2025 “Govern- ment Work Report” and the 14th Five-Year Plan explicitly propose a strategic orientation towards investing in people. How to leverage fiscal resources to favor sectors such as education, healthcare, vocational skills training, and social security, thereby driving high-quality development, has become an urgent practical issue to explore. It is worth noting that there are significant disparities in the scale and structure of expenditure invested in people across different regions, with particularly prominent shortcomings in public services in underdeveloped areas. Against this backdrop, this paper focuses on the following core questions: Will governments investing in people effectively boost resident consumption? What is the underlying mechanism? Are there significant differences in the impact across different regions? This paper uses panel data from China’s prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2022 to construct a two-way fixed effects model for empirical testing. The benchmark regression results show that investing in people significantly promotes the growth of resident consumption, and the conclusion remains valid under various robustness checks. Mechanism testing confirms the existence of both direct and indirect paths. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the consumption-boosting effect of investing in people is significantly stronger in low- and middle-income-intensive areas such as western regions, rural areas, and small and medium-sized cities than in developed regions, which is highly consistent with the expectations of the marginal propensity to consume theory. This paper makes the following contributions: In terms of the research perspective, it breaks through the traditional framework of fiscal analysis that focuses on investing in physical assets and focuses on investing in people, an emerging type of expenditure; in terms of the theoretical mechanism, it organically combines the theories of inclusiveness and marginal propensity to consume with indirect paths such as human capital, income, and innovation; in terms of empirical evidence, through regional heterogeneity analysis, it reveals that investing in people can be precisely tailored to low- and middle-income-intensive areas, providing solid support for the optimization and transformation of fiscal expenditure structure from physical assets to people.
柔性环保执法能否促进企业纳税遵从？——基于生态环境“首违不罚”的证据
摘要 · ABSTRACT
在环境规制日益趋严的背景下，强化环境规制是推动企业绿色转型、践行“两山”理念的必然选择；然而，不断攀升的环境合规成本也可能诱发企业避税动机，进而侵蚀国家税基。文章基于2013—2023年30个省份生态环境局微信公众号的文本语义分析结果，以生态环境“首违不罚”制度的实施为背景，研究发现：地方政府对“首违不罚”的表述态度越积极，该政策对企业避税行为的抑制效应越显著。在机制分析中，文章融合现金持有理论、信息经济学与行为经济学的理论框架，检验了财务约束缓解、外部治理强化和政企信任重塑三条核心传导路径。进一步分析表明，柔性环保执法在与其他环境政策搭配使用时，能够产生显著的协同增效作用。此外，柔性环保执法还将改变企业行为模式，对企业的客户资源维护和研发创新积累等方面产生积极影响。总体而言，文章丰富了企业避税外部动因的相关研究，深化了对环境执法中包容审慎原则的辩证认识，为协同推进税收治理和经济高质量发展提供了决策参考，也为地方政府优化环境执法提供了有益启示。
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Abstract
In the modern environmental governance system, strengthening environmental regulation is an inevitable choice for driving corporate green transformation. However, the rising costs of environmental compliance may also stimulate tax avoidance, posing a potential threat to the integrity of the national tax base. Meanwhile, the principle of “no penalty for first violation” in ecological environments, as an innovative practice of flexible environmental enforcement, raises a key question: Will the signal of flexible enforcement prompt firms to transfer compliance costs through tax avoidance, or will it foster cooperation expectations and psychological contracts that enhance tax compliance? Drawing on a semantic analysis of 2013–2023 texts from the official WeChat accounts of 30 provincial ecological environment bureaus, this paper finds that the principle of “no penalty for first violation” exerts a stronger inhibitory effect on corporate tax avoidance in regions where the principle is viewed more favorably. In mechanism analysis, this paper integrates the cash holding theory with the theoretical framework of behavioral economics and information economics, examining the transmission effects of operating cost ratio, institutional investors’ attention, and regional business environments. Further analysis reveals that when flexible environmental enforcement is combined with two other types of environmental policies, it yields significant synergistic effects. Moreover, flexible environmental enforcement also changes the behavior patterns of firms and has a positive impact on market reputation and innovation investment. This paper makes the following contributions: First, it extends the analytical scope of flexible enforcement research beyond market regulation and tax inspection into the environmental domain, providing unique empirical evidence for flexible enforcement reforms. Second, by building a theoretical bridge between environmental governance and corporate tax decisions, it illuminates the behavioral pathways through which flexible environmental enforcement affects tax compliance, expanding the interdisciplinary theoretical framework linking environmental policies and tax behaviors. Third, it innovates the measurement of law enforcement intensity by constructing a multi-dimensional semantic index based on massive official WeChat account texts, offering a replicable methodological reference for identifying causal relationships between policy text analysis and corporate behaviors.
财政转移支付与农业新质生产力发展
摘要 · ABSTRACT
农业大县财政困境与隐性利益流失削弱了地方政府发展农业的积极性，是制约农业新质生产力发展的关键因素。作为典型的定向激励机制，产粮大县奖励政策通过财政转移支付缓解地方财政压力，其能否促进农业新质生产力发展仍待检验。文章构建群聚—双重差分（Bunching-DID）模型，利用政策入围门槛作为制度断点，识别该政策对策略型产粮大县与典型产粮大县农业新质生产力的影响。研究发现：第一，产粮大县奖励政策有效增强了县级政府农业发展意愿，在政策入围门槛右侧形成显著的群聚现象；第二，产粮大县奖励政策显著促进了策略型产粮大县农业新质生产力的提高，其效应主要通过扩大农业社会化服务供给与优化资源配置实现；第三，奖励政策对策略型产粮大县农业新质生产力的激励效应因财政状况与产业禀赋而异，并且存在政策响应意愿与激励效果的错位问题；第四，典型产粮大县倾向于将奖励资金投入工业与城市部门，这导致政策效应不显著，而农业绩效考核的完善为政策发挥效果提供制度支撑。文章的研究有助于厘清地方政府对涉农财政转移支付的响应意愿与资金配置情况，为中央政府进一步完善农业定向激励机制、激发农业新质生产力的内生动力提供微观证据。
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Abstract
Building a strong nation requires strong agriculture. Developing agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs) is the key to achieving a leap from a major agricultural country to an agricultural powerhouse. The financial difficulties and hidden loss of benefits in agricultural counties have weakened the enthusiasm of local governments to develop agriculture, which is a key factor restricting the development of ANQPFs. As a typical targeted incentive mechanism, the Granary County Subsidy Program, through fiscal transfer payments, still needs to be systematically tested for its capability to alleviate local financial pressure and promote the development of ANQPFs. This paper constructs a Bunching-DID model and uses the policy entry threshold as an institutional breakpoint to identify the impact of the Granary County Subsidy Program on the ANQPFs in strategic grain-producing counties and typical grain-producing counties. The results show that: First, the policy effectively enhances the willingness of county-level governments to develop agriculture, forming a significant bunching phenomenon on the right side of the policy entry threshold. Second, the policy significantly stimulates the development of ANQPFs in strategic grain-producing counties, and this effect is mainly achieved through expanding agricultural socialized services and optimizing resource allocation. Third, the incentive effect of the policy on the ANQPFs in strategic grain-producing counties varies with fiscal conditions and industrial endowments, revealing a mismatch between willingness and effectiveness. This paper helps clarify the willingness and funding allocation orientation of local governments in responding to agricultural fiscal transfer payments, offering micro evidence for the central government to further improve agricultural targeted incentive mechanisms and strengthen the endogenous driving force of ANQPFs.
家族企业债务期限错配研究
摘要 · ABSTRACT
我国企业普遍存在债务期限结构错配现象，这加剧了企业流动性风险，容易引发资金链断裂甚至引发债务危机。文章利用2003—2023年中国沪深A股上市民营企业样本，探讨家族企业对于企业债务期限结构错配水平的影响。研究发现，与非家族企业相比，家族企业的债务期限结构错配水平更低，债务风险敞口更小。机制检验显示，家族企业是出于风险厌恶特征而选择了更低的债务期限结构错配水平。基于社会情感财富理论FIBER框架的分析表明，家族控制权越高、身份认同越强、社会纽带越紧密、情感依恋越深的家族企业对债务期限错配的抑制作用越强；家族创始人或接班人担任CEO时，较职业经理人更倾向于规避债务期限错配风险，且代际间表现一致，这表明保护社会情感财富的行为逻辑具有跨代持续性。经济后果检验发现，与非家族企业相比，家族企业的债务期限结构错配导致的实际违约水平更低，债务风险管理能力更强；此外，面对流动性冲击时，家族企业缩小债务风险敞口，且危机后股价恢复的概率显著高于非家族企业。文章将债务期限错配研究的视角拓展到企业主动风险管理层面，这为理解实体企业债务风险积聚的成因提供了新的思路，对防范化解重大风险工作具有启示意义。
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Abstract
Despite decelerating economic growth, China’s macro leverage ratio remains on the rise. Concurrently, the widespread debt maturity mismatch, characterized by “short-term borrowing for long-term investment”, has intensified the buildup of corporate default risks. There have been rich discussions on the determinants of corporate debt maturity mismatch, but most of them adopt a supply-side perspective of debt fi-nancing, emphasizing that firms passively incur maturity mismatch due to limited access to long-term financing. This paper takes family firms, an important organizational form of private enterprises, as the starting point to explore how family control affects firms’ strategies for debt maturity management. Using a sample of private listed companies in China from 2003 to 2023, this paper finds that compared with non-family firms, family firms exhibit a lower level of debt maturity mismatch. Mechanism testing indicates that this difference primarily stems from family firms’ adjustments to their asset structure. Textual analysis of the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) sections of annual reports, together with evidence from R&D investment and operating outcomes, further shows that family firms are more risk-averse. In addition, the negative effect of family control on debt maturity mismatch is more pronounced when economic policy uncertainty is higher. Analysis based on the FIBER framework of socioemotional wealth theory reveals that the inhibitory effect is stronger among firms with higher family ownership, stronger family identification, closer binding social ties, deeper emotional attachment, and founder- or successor-CEOs. Economic consequence analysis shows that, for a given level of debt maturity mismatch, family firms are associated with a lower probability of default; in the face of liquidity shocks, they exhibit greater organizational resilience, as reflected in a significantly higher likelihood of post-crisis stock price recovery compared to non-family firms. This paper makes the following contributions: First, it extends the explanatory framework for debt matu-rity mismatch by shifting the focus from the supply side of debt financing to asset-side decision-making, thereby offering a new perspective on the buildup of debt risks in real-economy firms. Second, it finds that family firms exercise greater prudence in debt maturity management, and systematically reveals the unique value of family firms in risk management from a full life-cycle perspective, advancing the theoretical understanding of family firms’ debt behavior and enriching the literature on the competitive advantages of family firms. Third, it highlights the importance of asset-side resource allocation in debt risk management and provides practical implications for firms to optimize debt structures.
民族精神的赓续传承与企业风险承担——基于相机治理能力的视角
摘要 · ABSTRACT
在历史车轮来到百年变局的关键节点，积极发挥民族精神赓续传承对稳定企业风险承担作用，对于发掘和创新风险管理模式，持续推动中国经济行稳致远具有重要意义。文章综合运用工商企业注册数据、国内和国际供应商—客户数据以及沪深A股上市企业文本数据，利用自然语言处理技术有效识别民族精神赓续传承，系统考察了其对企业风险承担的影响及作用机制。研究发现：第一，民族精神赓续传承能够有效提升企业管理者的风险治理能力，稳定企业风险承担水平；第二，该治理过程具有相机性，其作用效果集中于企业过度风险承担的情形，而不会对企业欠度风险承担阶段造成过度干扰；第三，民族精神赓续传承能够促使管理者采取积极主动的避险策略，通过产业链供应链多元化与创新驱动双路径相机平抑企业过度的风险承担。文章结论表明，民族精神的赓续传承能够赋能风险冲击下的企业相机治理能力，这为从非正式制度视角稳定企业风险承担水平与维护国家经济安全提供了重要的政策启示。
关键词 · KEYWORDS
Abstract
Amid accelerating global transformation and profound environmental restructuring, the surge in corporate risk-taking poses a severe threat to the survival of firms, with excessive risk exposure prone to triggering cascading failures. Consequently, exploring governance models that balance development with security is critical for navigating China’s economic transition through volatile periods. This necessitates not only formal institutional designs but also informal institutions to forge corporate ethos. Integrating business registration, supplier-customer, and A-share textual data, this paper employs Natural Language Processing (NLP) to quantify the continuity of national spirit and systematically examines its spillover effects and mechanisms on corporate risk-taking. The results indicate that: (1) The continuity of national spirit enhances managerial risk-governance capabilities, thereby stabilizing corporate risk-taking levels. (2) This governance effect is contingent, effectively mitigating excessive risk-taking without interfering with instances of under-risk-taking. (3) The continuity of national spirit incentivizes proactive hedging strategies, curbing excessive risk-taking through a dual pathway of supply chain diversification and innovation-driven responses. This paper makes the following marginal contributions: First, it provides a contingent perspective on the interplay between informal institutions and corporate behavior, breaking the paradigm of viewing their relationship as static. The adaptive nature of this governance effect to firms’ risk states reflects the vitality of informal institutions. Second, it introduces national spirit as a novel organizational-cultural determinant in the study of corporate risk-taking. Third, it highlights the role of national spirit in boosting corporate innovation and optimizing supply chain risk structures. The policy implications of this paper are as follows: First, give priority to informal institutions to create an institutional environment conducive to long-term sustainability, prudent management, and responsibility orientation. Second, establish specific supply chain risk monitoring and compensation mechanisms, encouraging firms to maintain sufficient redundancy to bolster systemic resilience. Third, leverage the innovative genes of national spirit to build an innovation-driven risk governance system.