人工智能发展与女性生育意愿：促进还是抑制？

The Development of Artificial Intelligence and Women’s Fertility Intentions: Promotion or Inhibition?

邹月晴，陈媛媛

2026 第 52 卷第 08 期页码 64-78

DOI: 10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20260526.301

摘要

人工智能技术的迅猛发展对劳动力市场产生了深远影响，并可能进一步重塑个体生育意愿，对社会代际更替与可持续发展构成挑战。文章基于2014年、2018年和2022年中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，考察了人工智能发展对女性生育意愿的影响。研究发现，人工智能发展显著降低了女性的理想子女数。机制分析表明，人工智能发展会通过经济、家庭决策、家庭关系及文化观念等多重渠道影响女性生育意愿。在经济层面，人工智能通过促进女性就业并提高其相对收入，提高了生育的机会成本；在家庭决策层面，人工智能发展降低了男性配偶的生育意愿，并通过家庭内部协商机制传导至女性；在家庭关系层面，人工智能发展降低了女性与家庭成员的互动频率及婚姻满意度，使女性在生育上更为审慎；在文化观念层面，人工智能重塑了女性的生育与性别角色观念，进而推动生育观念由责任向个人选择转变。异质性分析发现，人工智能对高学历女性生育意愿和二孩及以上生育意愿的影响更大。进一步分析发现，配偶家务参与度的提升以及社会托育服务的完善，能够有效缓解人工智能对女性生育意愿的负面影响。文章为理解技术变革背景下生育率持续下降提供了微观证据，为在技术快速迭代背景下构建生育友好型社会提供了政策启示。

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has profoundly reshaped the labor market and may further affect fertility intentions, which poses significant challenges to intergenerational renewal and sustainable development. Using data from the 2014, 2018, and 2022 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper examines the impact of AI development on women’s fertility intentions. The study constructs regional-level indicators of AI development by combining the number of AI patents granted across industries with each industry’s regional employment share in the base period. To address potential omitted-variable bias and reverse causality in model estimation, we further construct instrumental variables based on the number of AI patents granted across industries in the United States.

The results show that AI development significantly reduces women’s ideal number of children. Mechanism testing shows that AI reduces women’s fertility intentions through four channels. Economically, it increases women’s employment and relative income, raising the opportunity cost of childbearing. In household decision-making, it lowers male spouses’ fertility preferences and transmits this effect to women through intra-household bargaining. In family relationships, it reduces family interactions and marital satisfaction, making women more cautious in their fertility decisions. In cultural norms and values, it reshapes women's fertility norms and gender-role perceptions, turning childbearing from a perceived obligation into a personal choice. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect of AI is stronger among highly-educated women and for the intention to have two or more children. Further evidence indicates that greater spousal involvement in housework and better access to social childcare services mitigate the negative effect of AI on women’s fertility intentions.

This paper enriches the literature on the socioeconomic effects of AI and deepens the understanding of the determinants of fertility intentions. It also examines effective measures to enhance women’s fertility intentions under the impact of AI technology. The findings provide empirical evidence and policy implications for building a fertility-friendly society and formulating long-term policies to address demographic transformation in the era of rapid AI development.

关键词： 人工智能,生育意愿,女性

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