7364 
7535消费者常常具有规避不确定性的倾向，但越来越多的企业却在营销活动中使用不确定性促销策略，刻意给消费者营造不确定感。理论界基于不同视角对这一有趣的现象进行了分析，以检验不确定性促销是否有效。本文系统梳理了近20年来的相关研究，首先从信息缺口理论和内驱力理论、积极情感理论、天生乐观主义理论三个视角归纳了不确定性促销发挥效用的机理，随后依据消费目的、促销策略和顾客属性三个维度识别了不确定性促销的效用边界，并展望了未来的研究方向。
基于不确定性的促销策略研究:理论综述与最新进展
摘要
参考文献
1 Ailawadi K L, Gedenk K, Langer T, et al. Consumer response to uncertain promotions: An empirical analysis of conditional rebates[J]. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 2014, 31(1): 94-106. DOI:10.1016/j.ijresmar.2013.08.002
2 Alavi S, Bornemann T, Wieseke J. Gambled price discounts: A remedy to the negative side effects of regular price discounts[J]. Journal of Marketing, 2015, 79(2): 62-78. DOI:10.1509/jm.12.0408
4 Berlyne D E. Conflict, arousal, and curiosity[M]. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1960.
6 Choi S, Stanyer M, Kim M. Consumer responses to the depth and minimum claimed savings of "scratch and save (SAS)" promotions[J]. Psychology and Marketing, 2010, 27(8): 766-779. DOI:10.1002/mar.v27:8
7 Curley S P, Yates J F. The center and range of the probability interval as factors affecting ambiguity preferences[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1985, 36(2): 273-287. DOI:10.1016/0749-5978(85)90016-0
8 Curley S P, Yates J F. An empirical evaluation of descriptive models of ambiguity reactions in choice situations[J]. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 1989, 33(4): 397-427. DOI:10.1016/0022-2496(89)90019-9
9 Dhar S K, González-Vallejo C, Soman D. Brand promotions as a lottery[J]. Marketing Letters, 1995, 6(3): 221-233. DOI:10.1007/BF00995113
10 Einhorn H J, Hogarth R M. Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference[J]. Psychological Review, 1985, 92(4): 433-461. DOI:10.1037/0033-295X.92.4.433
11 Gneezy U, List J A, Wu G. The uncertainty effect: When a risky prospect is valued less than its worst possible outcome[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2006, 121(4): 1283-1309. DOI:10.1093/qje/121.4.1283
12 Goldsmith K, Amir O. Can uncertainty improve promotions?[J]. Journal of Marketing Research, 2010, 47(6): 1070-1077. DOI:10.1509/jmkr.47.6.1070
13 Han S, Lerner J S, Keltner D. Feelings and consumer decision making: The appraisal-tendency framework[J]. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 2007, 17(3): 158-168. DOI:10.1016/S1057-7408(07)70023-2
14 Hill K M, Fombelle P W, Siriann N J. Shopping under the influence of curiosity: How retailers use mystery to drive purchase motivation[J]. Journal of Business Research, 2016, 69(3): 1028-1034. DOI:10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.08.015
15 Iyengar G, Kumar A. Optimal procurement mechanisms for divisible goods with capacitated suppliers[J]. Review of Economic Design, 2008, 12(2): 129-154. DOI:10.1007/s10058-008-0046-7
16 Kahn B E, Sarin R K. Modeling ambiguity in decisions under uncertainty[J]. Journal of Consumer Research, 1988, 15(2): 265-272. DOI:10.1086/jcr.1988.15.issue-2
17 Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk[J]. Econometrica, 1979, 47(2): 263-292. DOI:10.2307/1914185
18 Kumar P, Kalwani M U, Dada M. The impact of waiting time guarantees on customers' waiting experiences[J]. Marketing Science, 1997, 16(4): 295-314. DOI:10.1287/mksc.16.4.295
19 Laran J, Tsiros M. An investigation of the effectiveness of uncertainty in marketing promotions involving free gifts[J]. Journal of Marketing, 2013, 77(2): 112-123. DOI:10.1509/jm.11.0255
20 Le Poire B A, Burgoon J K. Usefulness of differentiating arousal responses within communication theories: Orienting response or defensive arousal within nonverbal theories of expectancy violation[J]. Communication Monographs, 1996, 63(3): 208-230. DOI:10.1080/03637759609376390
21 Lee Y H, Qiu C. When uncertainty brings pleasure: The role of prospect imageability and mental imagery[J]. Journal of Consumer Research, 2009, 36(4): 624-633. DOI:10.1086/599766
22 Loewenstein G. The psychology of curiosity: A review and reinterpretation[J]. Psychological Bulletin, 1994, 116(1): 75-98. DOI:10.1037/0033-2909.116.1.75
23 Mayhew G E, Winer R S. An empirical analysis of internal and external reference prices using scanner data[J]. Journal of Consumer Research, 1992, 19(1): 62-70. DOI:10.1086/jcr.1992.19.issue-1
24 Monroe K B. Measuring price thresholds by psychophysics and latitudes of acceptance[J]. Journal of Marketing Research, 1971, 8(4): 460-464. DOI:10.2307/3150237
25 Narayanan S, Manchanda P. Heterogeneous learning and the targeting of marketing communication for new products[J]. Marketing Science, 2009, 28(3): 424-441. DOI:10.1287/mksc.1080.0410
26 Petty R E, DeSteno D, Rucker D D. The role of affect in attitude change[A]. Forgas J P (Ed.).Handbook of affect and social cognition[C]. Mahwah: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2001: 212-236.
27 Price K P, Geer J H. Predictable and unpredictable aversive events: Evidence for the safety-signal hypothesis[J]. Psychonomic Science, 1972, 26(4): 215-216. DOI:10.3758/BF03328598
28 Schachter S, Singer J. Cognitive, social, and physiological determinants of emotional state[J]. Psychological Review, 1962, 69(5): 379-399. DOI:10.1037/h0046234
29 Shen L X, Fishbach A, Hsee C K. The motivating-uncertainty effect: Uncertainty increases resource investment in the process of reward pursuit[J]. Journal of Consumer Research, 2015, 41(5): 1301-1315. DOI:10.1086/679418
30 Taylor S E, Brown J D. Illusion and well-being: a social psychological perspective on mental health[J]. Psychological Bulletin, 1988, 103(2): 193-210. DOI:10.1037/0033-2909.103.2.193
31 von Neumann J, Morgenstern O. Theory of games and economic behavior[M]. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1944.
32 Zillmann D. Attribution and misattribution of excitatory reactions[A]. Harvey J H, Ickes W, Kidd R F (Eds.). New directions in attribution research[C]. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1978: 335-368.
引用本文
寿志钢, 郑伟华. 基于不确定性的促销策略研究:理论综述与最新进展[J]. 外国经济与管理, 2017, 39(3): 90–98.
导出参考文献，格式为：
下一篇：科学视角主义对管理研究的启示
