Based on the non-equilibrium growth model proposed by Baumol (1967), and the exploration of a new round of fiscal and taxation reform, this paper examines the internal economic logic between the business-to-VAT reform and the evolution of industrial structure upgrading through a simple theoretical analysis.Then based on the provincial panel data from 1995 to 2014, it uses the panel vector autoregressive model to empirically analyze the influence of the business-to-VAT reform on the evolution of China's industrial structure upgrading.It arrives at the results as follows:firstly, in terms of the results of GMM and impulse response, the new round of turnover tax reform which is based on the business-to-VAT reform, improves the proportion of the tertiary industry in the national economy and reduces the proportion of the secondary industry, thereby promoting the evolution of industrial structure upgrading; secondly, in terms of the results of variance decomposition, it can be seen that the policy-shock impact of the business tax variable on the secondary industry is greater, and the policy-shock impact of the VAT variable on the tertiary industry is greater; and the effect of the turnover tax reform on the tertiary industry is greater than the one on the secondary industry.
Does the Reform of Turnover Tax Promote the Upgrading of Industrial Structure?An Analysis of PVAR Model from a Perspective of Business-to-VAT Reform
Journal of Finance and Economics Vol. 43, Issue 02, pp. 70 - 83 (2017) DOI:10.16538/j.cnkij.fe.2017.02.005
Cite this article
Sun Zheng. Does the Reform of Turnover Tax Promote the Upgrading of Industrial Structure?An Analysis of PVAR Model from a Perspective of Business-to-VAT Reform[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2017, 43(2): 70–83.
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