关于货币危机后经济衰退的经验分析
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财经研究 2005 年 第 31 卷第 10 期, 页码：24 - 35
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章以1990年以来的近200次货币危机为样本,对货币危机后的经济衰退进行了经验分析。研究发现,危机前的经常账户状况、外债余额占GDP比例、国际流动性指标等经济变量以及危机后的汇率制度都不会显著影响到危机后的经济衰退。另外,危机后的经济衰退与危机国政府在危机中是否抛售外汇储备、是否采取汇率贬值都没有明显关系。但是经济分析的结果表明,危机前的失业率和汇率制度以及危机中是否提高利率等因素对危机后的经济衰退有显著作用。
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①Prasad等(2003)在研究金融全球化对发展中国家的影响时,认为由于存量数据在不同年度之间波动幅度较小,并且发生测量错误的概率较低,因此以对外资产和负债总存量占GDP的比重来代表金融开放程度更为合理。
[2]Bordo Michel,Barry Eichengreen.Crises now and then:What lessons from the last era offinancial globalization?[A].Paul Mizen.Monetary history,exchange rates and financialmarkets[C].Edward Elgar Publishing,Northsmpton,USA,2003.
[3]Eichengreen Barry,Andrew K Rose,Charles Whplosz.Contagious currency crises[R].NBER Working Paper,No.w5681,1996.
[4]Flood Robert,Peter Garber.Collapsing exchange rate regime:Some linear example[J].Journal of International Economics,1984,17:1~13.
[5]Frankel Jeffrey A.No single currency regime is right for all countries and at all times[R].Nber Working Paper,No.W7338,1999.
[6]Frankel Jeffrey A,Andrew K Rose.Currency crashes in emerging markets:An Empiricaltreatment[J].Journal of International Economics,1996,(41):351~366.
[7]Furman Jason,Joseph E Stiglitz.Economic crises:Evidence and insights from east Asia[R].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1998,(2):1~135.
[8]Girton Lance,Don Roper.A monetary model of exchange market pressure applied topostwar canadian experience[J].American Economic Review,1977,(67):537~548.
[9]Gower Luke,Alan Krause.Currency crises and macroeconomic performance[R].Re-serve Bank of Australia,Discussion Paper,2002-08.
[10]Hutchison Michael.A cure worse than the disease?Currency crises and the outputcosts of IMF-Support stabilization programs[R].NBER,Working Paper,No.w8305,2001.
[11]Krugman Paul.A model of balance-of-payments crises[J].Journal of Money,Creditand Banking,1979,(11):311~325.
[12]Obstfeld Maurice.Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling feature[J].(NBERWorking Paper NO.5287,1995),European Economic Review,1996,(40):1037~1048.
[13]Prasad S Eswar,Kenneth Rogoff,Shang-Jin Wei,M Ayhan Kose.Effects of financialglobalzation on developing countries:Some empiricial evidence[R].IMF Occasional Pa-pers No.220,2003.
[14]Radelet Steven,Jeffrey Sachs.The east asian financial crises:Diagnosis,remedies,pros-pects[R].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1998,(1):1~90.
[15]金洪飞.货币危机理论文献综述[J].当代经济科学,2001,(5):34~43.
[16]金洪飞.货币危机对产出的影响:一个货币危机的综合模型[J].财经研究,2004,(4):16~26.
[17]金洪飞.新兴市场货币危机机理研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2004.
①Prasad等(2003)在研究金融全球化对发展中国家的影响时,认为由于存量数据在不同年度之间波动幅度较小,并且发生测量错误的概率较低,因此以对外资产和负债总存量占GDP的比重来代表金融开放程度更为合理。
引用本文
金洪飞, 姜诚. 关于货币危机后经济衰退的经验分析[J]. 财经研究, 2005, 31(10): 24–35.
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