货币危机对产出的影响——一个货币危机的综合模型
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财经研究 2004 年 第 30 卷第 04 期, 页码：17 - 27
摘要
参考文献
摘要
不同的货币危机对经济产出水平有不同的影响,文章主要研究货币危机与产出水平之间的关系。文章构造了一个由IPLM曲线和总产出曲线构成的汇率—产出模型,揭示了三代货币危机模型的内在关联性。在这个简单的货币危机综合模型中,第一代货币危机模型和第二代货币危机模型被作为第三代货币危机模型的特例,从而把三代货币危机模型统一起来,解释了不同货币危机对产出水平的不同影响。
①各国实际经济增长率的数据来源于 2 0 0 1年的InternationalFinancialStatisticsYearbook和
2 0 0 3年 9月的WorldEconomicOutlook。
②关于货币危机的理论文献综述 ,参见金洪飞 (2 0 0 1 )。
③金洪飞、李子奈 (2 0 0 1 )和金洪飞 (2 0 0 3 )分别解释了货币危机国在危机前外债规模过大和短期外债比例过高的原因。
[1]Aghion,Philippe,PhilippeBacchettaandAbhijitBanerjee Capitalmarketsandtheinstabilityofopeneconomies[A].Pierre-RichardAgenor,MarcusMiller,DavidVines andaxelweber Theasianfinancialcrisis:causes,contagionandconsequences[C].Cambridge,UK:CambridgeUniversityPress,1999:167～194
[2]Aghion,Philippe,PhilippeBacchettaandAbhijitBanerjee.Asimplemodelofmonetarypolicyandcurrencycrises[J].EuropeanEconomicReview,2000,Vol.44:728～738.
[3]Aghion,Philippe,PhilippeBacchettaandAbhijitBanerjee Currencycrisesandmonetarypolicyinaneconomywithcreditconstrains[J] EuropeanEconomicReview,2001,Vol 45:1121～1150
[4]Bernanke,BenS andMarkGertler Agencycosts,networthandbusinessfluctuations[J]AmericanEconomicReview,1989,Vol 79(March):14～31
[5]Burnside,Craig,MartinEichenbaumandSergioRebelo Onthefundamentalsofself-fulfillingspeculativeattacks[R] NBERWorkingPaper,2000,No 7554
[6]Flood,RobertandPeterGarber Collapsingexchangerateregime:somelinearexample[J] JournalofInternationalEconomics1984,Vol 17:1～13
[7]Furman,JasonandJosephE Stiglitz Economiccrises:evidenceandinsightsfromeastasia[J]BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,1998,No 2:1～135
[8]IMF Internationalfinancialstatisticsyearbook2001[M] WashingtonD C :InternationalMonetaryFund,2001
[9]IMF WorldEconomicOutlook[R] September2003
[10]Krugman,Paul Balancesheets,thetransferproblem,andfinancialcrises[Z] Mimeo,MIT,1999
[11]Krugman,Paul Crises:thenextgeneration[oL] Mimeo,MIT,2001·52·金洪飞:货币危机对产出的影响
[12]Radelet,StevenandJeffreySachs Theeastasianfinancialcrises:diagnosis,remedies,prospects[J] BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,1998,No 1:1～90
[13]Rivera-Batiz,FranciscoL Theeastasiancrisesandtheanatomyofemergingmarketdisease[A] ArvidJohnLukauskasandFranciscoL Rivera-Batiz Thepoliticaleconomyoftheeastasiancrisisanditsaftermath[C] Cheltenham,UK:EdwardElgarPublishingLimited,2001:31～73
[14]Rivera-Batiz,LuisL andMaria-AngelsOliva Revisitingtheeastasiancrisesanditsaftermath:Apoliticaleconomyapproach[A] ArvidJohnLukauskasandFranciscoL Rivera-BatizThepoliticaleconomyoftheeastasiancrisisanditsaftermath[C] Cheltenham,UK:EdwardElgarPublishingLimited,2001:165～194
[15]金洪飞 货币危机理论文献综述[J] 当代经济科学,2001,(5)
[16]金洪飞,李子奈 资本流动与货币危机[J] 金融研究,2001,(12)
[17]金洪飞 外债的期限结构与货币危机[J] 金融研究,2003,(6)
2 0 0 3年 9月的WorldEconomicOutlook。
②关于货币危机的理论文献综述 ,参见金洪飞 (2 0 0 1 )。
③金洪飞、李子奈 (2 0 0 1 )和金洪飞 (2 0 0 3 )分别解释了货币危机国在危机前外债规模过大和短期外债比例过高的原因。
[1]Aghion,Philippe,PhilippeBacchettaandAbhijitBanerjee Capitalmarketsandtheinstabilityofopeneconomies[A].Pierre-RichardAgenor,MarcusMiller,DavidVines andaxelweber Theasianfinancialcrisis:causes,contagionandconsequences[C].Cambridge,UK:CambridgeUniversityPress,1999:167～194
[2]Aghion,Philippe,PhilippeBacchettaandAbhijitBanerjee.Asimplemodelofmonetarypolicyandcurrencycrises[J].EuropeanEconomicReview,2000,Vol.44:728～738.
[3]Aghion,Philippe,PhilippeBacchettaandAbhijitBanerjee Currencycrisesandmonetarypolicyinaneconomywithcreditconstrains[J] EuropeanEconomicReview,2001,Vol 45:1121～1150
[4]Bernanke,BenS andMarkGertler Agencycosts,networthandbusinessfluctuations[J]AmericanEconomicReview,1989,Vol 79(March):14～31
[5]Burnside,Craig,MartinEichenbaumandSergioRebelo Onthefundamentalsofself-fulfillingspeculativeattacks[R] NBERWorkingPaper,2000,No 7554
[6]Flood,RobertandPeterGarber Collapsingexchangerateregime:somelinearexample[J] JournalofInternationalEconomics1984,Vol 17:1～13
[7]Furman,JasonandJosephE Stiglitz Economiccrises:evidenceandinsightsfromeastasia[J]BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,1998,No 2:1～135
[8]IMF Internationalfinancialstatisticsyearbook2001[M] WashingtonD C :InternationalMonetaryFund,2001
[9]IMF WorldEconomicOutlook[R] September2003
[10]Krugman,Paul Balancesheets,thetransferproblem,andfinancialcrises[Z] Mimeo,MIT,1999
[11]Krugman,Paul Crises:thenextgeneration[oL] Mimeo,MIT,2001·52·金洪飞:货币危机对产出的影响
[12]Radelet,StevenandJeffreySachs Theeastasianfinancialcrises:diagnosis,remedies,prospects[J] BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,1998,No 1:1～90
[13]Rivera-Batiz,FranciscoL Theeastasiancrisesandtheanatomyofemergingmarketdisease[A] ArvidJohnLukauskasandFranciscoL Rivera-Batiz Thepoliticaleconomyoftheeastasiancrisisanditsaftermath[C] Cheltenham,UK:EdwardElgarPublishingLimited,2001:31～73
[14]Rivera-Batiz,LuisL andMaria-AngelsOliva Revisitingtheeastasiancrisesanditsaftermath:Apoliticaleconomyapproach[A] ArvidJohnLukauskasandFranciscoL Rivera-BatizThepoliticaleconomyoftheeastasiancrisisanditsaftermath[C] Cheltenham,UK:EdwardElgarPublishingLimited,2001:165～194
[15]金洪飞 货币危机理论文献综述[J] 当代经济科学,2001,(5)
[16]金洪飞,李子奈 资本流动与货币危机[J] 金融研究,2001,(12)
[17]金洪飞 外债的期限结构与货币危机[J] 金融研究,2003,(6)
引用本文
金洪飞. 货币危机对产出的影响——一个货币危机的综合模型[J]. 财经研究, 2004, 30(4): 17–27.
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