国际经济波动冲击发展中国家的路径——基于14个发展中国家的实证研究
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财经研究 2012 年 第 38 卷第 11 期, 页码：61 - 70
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章以1980-2008年14个发展水平相近且外资开放度较高的发展中国家为研究对象,采用两阶段模型筛选方法,分析了FDI、国际贸易和国际经济周期变化的相互影响,以探讨经济全球化背景下发展中国家受到世界经济冲击的主要传递渠道及渠道间的关联。研究结果显示,FDI和贸易是传递世界经济波动的两条主要渠道;FDI、进口和GDP因相互影响而形成一条循环,其中FDI对进口具有单向的预测能力,因此,FDI相对于进口能更敏感地传递世界经济波动。
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[2]秦宛顺,靳云汇,卜永祥.中国经济周期与国际经济周期相关性分析[J].学习与实践,2002,(2):26-28.
[3]任志祥,宋玉华.论经济全球化下的中国经济波动与世界经济周期[J].技术经济,2004,(3):15-17.
[4]宋玉华,方建春.中国与世界经济波动的相关性研究[J].财贸经济,2007,(1):104-110.
[5]杨湘玉.外商直接投资对发展中国家进口和技术溢出的影响[D].北京大学博士学位论文,2006.
[6]Baxter M,Kouparitsas M A.Determinants of business cycle comovement;A robust analysis[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2005,52:113-157.
[7]Crosby M.Business cycle correlations in Asia-Pacific[J].Economics Letters,2003,80:35-44.
[8]Frankel J A,Rose,A K.The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria[J].Eco-nomic Journal,1998,108:1009-1025.
[9]Gruben W C,Koo J,Millis E.How much does international trade affect business cycle synchronization?[R].Working Paper,2002.
[10]Imbs J.Trade,finance,specialization,and synchronization[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2004,86:723-734.
[11]Imbs J.The real effects of financial integration[J].Journal of International Economics,2006,68:296-324.
[12]Inklaar R,Jong-A-Pin R,de Haan J.Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries—Are-examination[J].European Economic Review,2008,52:646-666.
[13]Jansen W J,Stockman A C J.Foreign direct investment and international business cycle comovement[R].Working Paper,2004.
[14]Krishna K,Ozyildirim A,Swanson N R.Trade,investment and growth:Nexus,analy-sis,and prognosis[R].NBER Working Paper,No.6861,1998.
[15]Levy-Yeyati E,Panizza U,Stein E.The cyclical nature of North-South FDI flows[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2007,26:104-130.
[16]Otto G,Voss G,Willard L.Understanding OECD output correlations[R].Working Paper,2001.
[17]Papageorgiou T,Michaelides P G,Milios J G.Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe(1960-2009)[J].Journal of Economics and Business,2010,62:419-470.
[18]Beaudry P,Dupaigne M,Portier F.Modeling news-driven international business cycle[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2011,14:72-91.
[19]Rana P B,Cheng T,Chia W-M.Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization:East Asia versus Europe[EB/OL].http://www.sciencedireet.com/science/article/pii/s1049007811001072.
[20]Swason N R,Ozyildirim A,Pisu M.A comparison of alternative causality and predic-tive ability tests in the presence of integrated and cointegrated economic variables[R].Working Paper,Pennsylvania State University,1996.
引用本文
杨湘玉, 程源. 国际经济波动冲击发展中国家的路径——基于14个发展中国家的实证研究[J]. 财经研究, 2012, 38(11): 61–70.
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