产业结构变迁与住宅价格关系实证研究——来自中国内地的经验分析
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财经研究 2014 年 第 40 卷第 03 期, 页码：73 - 84
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章基于住宅价格变动中产业结构变迁影响及其内在机理的视角,通过构建产业结构合理化与高级化的理论测度,利用2002-2011年中国内地30个省区的面板数据,实证检验了产业结构变迁对住宅价格变动的影响。研究结果表明:产业结构合理化对住宅价格有显著正向影响,产业结构高级化也显著推动住宅价格上涨;在样本时期内,产业结构变迁对全国住宅价格上涨的贡献率为13.45%;产业结构合理化、高级化对住宅价格的影响呈现明显的区域差异,两者对东部、中部、西部住宅价格的影响效应依次递减;银行信贷、土地价格推高住宅价格,利率调整对房价的调控作用基本失效,人口规模、人均收入水平对住宅价格的影响因地区与时间而异。
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[2]克鲁格.发展中国家的贸易与就业[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1995.
[3]孔煜.房价波动、银行信贷与经济增长[J].财经理论与实践,2009,(5):12-16.
[4]李宏瑾,徐爽.供给刚性、市场结构与金融——关于房价的Carey(1990)模型扩展[J].财经问题研究,2006,(8):42-49.
[5]骆永民.城市化对房价的影响:线性还是非线性?——基于四种面板数据回归模型的实证分析[J].财经研究,2011,(4):135-144.
[6]沈悦,刘洪玉.住宅价格与经济基本面:1995—2002年中国14城市的实证研究[J].经济研究,2004,(6):78-86.
[7]王岳龙,武鹏.房价与地价关系的再检验——来自中国28个省的面板数据[J].南开经济研究,2009,(4):131-142.
[8]张红.房地产经济学讲义[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004.
[9]周京奎.房地产泡沫生成与演化——基于金融支持过度假说的一种解释[J].财贸经济,2006,(5):3-10.
[10]周振华.产业结构优化论[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1992.
[11]Arellano M,Bover O.Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1995,68(1):29-51.
[12]Blundell R,Bond S.Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1998,87(1):115-143.
[13]Bond S,Hoeffler A,Temple J.GMM estimation of empirical growth modes[R].CEPR Discussion Paper No.3048,2001.
[14]Bond S.Dynamic panel data models:A guide to micro data methods and practice[J].Portuguese Economic Journal,2002,1(2):141-162.
[15]Boyle M A,Kiel K A.A survey of house price hedonic studies of the impact of environmental externalities[J].Journal of Real Estate Literature,2001,9(2):117-144.
[16]Case K E,Shiller R J.Forecasting prices and excess returns in the housing market[J].Real Estate Economics,1990,18(3):253-273.
[17]Clapp J M,Giaccotto C.The influence of economic variables on local house price dynamics[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1994,36(2):161-183.
[18]Davis E P,Zhu H.Bank lending and commercial property cycles:Some cross-country evidence[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2011,30(1):1-21.
[19]Fleming M C,Nellis J G.Development of standardized indices for measuring house price inflation incorporating physical and locational characteristics[J].Applied Economics,1992,24(9):1067-1085.
[20]Gottlieb M.Long swings in urban development[M].New York:Columbia University Press for NBER,1976.
[21]Jarociński M,Smets F.House prices and the stance of monetary policy[R].ECB Working Paper,2008.
[22]Kolankiewicz L,Beck R.Weighing sprawl factors in large U S cities[R].Washington,DC:Numbers USA,2001.
[23]Kuznets S.Economic growth and income in equality[J].American Economic Review,1955,45(1):1-28.
[24]Leung C K Y.Economic growth and increasing house prices[J].Pacific Economic Review,2003,8(2):183-190.
[25]Malpezzi S.A simple error correction model of housing prices[J].Journal of Housing Economics,1999,8(1):27-62.
[26]Mankiw N G,Weil D N.The baby boom,the baby bust and the housing market[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,1989,19(2):235-258.
[27]Ortalo-Magne F,Rady S.Boom in,bust out:Young households and the housing price cycle[J].European Economic Review,1999,43(4-6):755-766.
[28]Poterba J M,Weil D N,Shiller R.Housing price dynamics:The role of tax policy and demography[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1991,1991(2):143-203.
[29]Quigley J M.A simple hybrid model for estimating real estate price indexes[J].Journal of Housing Economics,1995,4(1):1-12.
[30]Quigley J M.Real estate prices and economic cycles[J].International Real Estate Review,1999,2(1):1-20.
[31]Reed R,Pettit C.Understanding change in residential property markets:Mapping residency of employment data[J].Pacific Rim Property Research Journal,2004,10(3):353-374.
引用本文
刘嘉毅, 陶婷芳, 夏鑫. 产业结构变迁与住宅价格关系实证研究——来自中国内地的经验分析[J]. 财经研究, 2014, 40(3): 73–84.
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