The reaction, stance and influence effect of macro-control policy on housing prices are the important basis for the design of government policies. Since at the end of 2007 financial crisis was broke out, macro-control policy and housing prices fluctuations have changed significantly. This paper accordingly constructs three monthly time series samples of housing prices and policy variables bounded by 2008:1998-2007, 2008-2014 and 1998-2014. Then the paper makes an empirical analysis of the reaction, stance and influence effect of macro-control policy on housing prices before and after 2008. The results show as follows:firstly, reactions of real lending rate and money supply to objective variables are interlaced with each other before and after 2008; money supply reacts to housing prices contrary to the assumption, monetary policy does not react to housing price sufficiently, however, fiscal and land policies make better results; secondly, money supply is an important reason for rising prices with the biggest effect, and the impact of fixed asset investment is very significant since 2008;impulse response analysis reveals that interest rate influences housing prices in negative direction only in the short term,and except land policy, fiscal and monetary policies both have stable impacts on housing prices in the long period. It provides reliable evidence for the advancement of macro-control policy and healthy and stable development of real estale market.
Fluctuations in Housing Prices, Stance Estimation of Macro-control Policy and Its Influence Effect: Empirical Analysis Based on the Data from 1998 to 2014
Journal of Finance and Economics Vol. 42, Issue 06, pp. 98 - 109 (2016) DOI:10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.2016.06.009
Cite this article
Zheng Shigang, Yan Liang. Fluctuations in Housing Prices, Stance Estimation of Macro-control Policy and Its Influence Effect: Empirical Analysis Based on the Data from 1998 to 2014[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2016, 42(6): 98–109.