Faced with a complex external environment, the decoupling and disruption of industrial chains have become a primary threat to China’s economic security. Against this backdrop, enhancing the resilience and security of industrial chains is not only a key measure for achieving industrial modernization but also a crucial task in advancing China’s modernization.

In view of this, this paper constructs a theoretical framework for industrial chain resilience, and then constructs the MS-LU model and focuses on the core carrier of new quality productive forces—strategic emerging industries—identify the alienation path of industrial chain resilience by combining theory with practice. Furthermore, on the basis of dynamically measuring the numerical level of industrial chain resilience, and in combination with the MAI-AR-SV model, the internal driving force of industrial chain resilience is systematically deconstructed. Finally, based on the “growth-at-risk” framework, the time-varying enabling effect of industrial chain resilience on economic security is deeply analyzed. The study finds that: First, when the industrial chain faces external systemic risk shocks, the probability of U-shaped resistance will rapidly increase, indicating that the industrial chain has strong resistance resilience. However, with the conversion of kinetic energy and structural changes within the industry, the probability of L-shaped contraction will show a clear upward trend. Second, industrial chain resilience presents a close “horizontal” collaborative mechanism. That is, there are significant common endogenous driving forces between the resilience of different industrial chains. Third, the new generation of information technology, new materials, and energy-saving and environmental protection industries play a significant positive role in the early stage of high-quality development of economic transformation. After entering a new stage of development, the biotechnology industry has built an economic security line during public health emergencies, while the energy-saving and environmental protection industry has contributed more positive forces in the context of the “dual carbon” goal.

The policy implications of this paper are that: First, strengthen top-level design and long-term expectation management to build a “full-chain resilience” development framework. Second, focus on industrial clusters and innovation ecosystems, give full play to the resilience-leading role of key industries, and build a resilient and interconnected industrial community. Third, fully consider the economic security-enabling role of industrial chain resilience and improve the dynamic prevention and control mechanism of economic risks. In the future, it is necessary to further expand the scope of industrial early warning, establish a micro-level early warning framework for at-risk growth across the entire industrial chain, and enhance the sensitivity of predicting economic security risks.