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9404文章构建新凯恩斯模型，研究了供求冲击和异质性预期下，不同货币政策调控范式的有效性。研究发现：中国的经济波动主要由需求冲击所驱动，预期呈现出理性预期和适应性预期混合的异质性特征，货币政策表现出明显的相机抉择倾向；需求冲击导致经济波动向稳态收敛的时间明显长于供给冲击，预期的理性程度提高有助于增进整体福利，事前承诺不一定优于相机抉择，尤其当预期呈现异质性特征时；货币政策忽视利率稳定化操作将导致更多的整体福利损失，需求冲击下这一损失又显著大于供给冲击下。文章认为：在当前预期呈现异质性特征的背景下，相机抉择型调控具有合理性，货币政策不宜盲目向事前承诺转型；在经济波动主要由需求冲击所驱动时，货币政策应考虑利率稳定化因素，保持稳健中性基调可防止不必要的利率扰动影响金融稳定，从而减少福利损失；长期来看，改善公众预期，逐步摆脱外需依赖，大力推进供给侧结构性改革，有助于提升货币政策调控的经济稳定作用。
供求冲击、异质性预期与货币政策范式选择
摘要
参考文献
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高洁超, 杨源源, 范从来. 供求冲击、异质性预期与货币政策范式选择[J]. 财经研究, 2019, 45(3): 47-59.
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