By the usage of the data of Chinese industrial enterprises, this paper first investigates the relationship between the degree of enterprise export persistence and the number of enterprises employed, combining the theoretical mechanism, the survival analysis, the panel static and dynamic regression and the difference-in-difference method. Based on the searching-matching framework, the optimization process is extended to the exporter, and the impact path of the export continuity on employment is revealed, and the risk function of export enterprises’ continuous export is estimated by the survival analysis method, and the real export length of the enterprise is accurately assessed. Based on the above work, we use the data of Chinese industrial enterprises to assess the marginal impact of export durations on employment and demonstrate the impact mechanism. The main conclusions of the study are as follows: First, when the duration of the enterprise export increases by 1%, the employment scale of employees will increase by nearly 2%−4%. Second, when the export duration of the current enterprise continues to increase, the total number of employees will increase significantly in the future, indicating that the conclusion of the continuous export enterprises to create more jobs is also established at the dynamic level. Third, the mechanism for continuous export enterprises to create more employment depends on the realization of high profit, that is, the reason why employees in the continuous export enterprises have a higher employment scale is that the continuous export enterprises are more likely to gain high profits and thus have a better ability to create and maintain their jobs. Fourth, the reform of the exchange rate system in 2005 did not reduce the ability of the continuous export enterprises to create employment, indicating that the export of industrial enterprises above the scale may not be affected by the reform of the exchange rate system, that is, the competitiveness of most enterprises’ export products should not only be the advantage of the price. The conclusions drawn from the article provide important inspiration for China’s further opening-up and full employment in the future. Although many policies that the government encourages exports can sometimes play a direct or indirect role in supporting enterprises’ ability to maintain exports, for example, long term export tax rebates and subsidies, financing and tax incentives related to encouraging enterprises to " go out”, direct or indirect subsidies for the production of high and new technology products or export products in shortage, all of which encourage both export and export enterprises to maintain their export capacity. But in most cases, it is more difficult to maintain the long-term export capability of enterprises than to encourage enterprises to export. More effective methods are that the government should provide financial and technological supports for the product development and manufacture of export enterprises, fundamentally improve product quality and management abilities of enterprises, so that they can always have the export ability and international market competitiveness, as far as possible to maintain longer export life.
Does Persistent Export Create More Jobs?
Journal of Finance and Economics Vol. 44, Issue 07, pp. 46 - 59 (2018) DOI:10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.2018.07.004
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Cite this article
Chen Hao, Chen Jianwei, Si Jichun. Does Persistent Export Create More Jobs?[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2018, 44(7): 46-59.