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61932008-2009年国际贸易的急剧衰退究竟是金融危机的结果，还是贸易体系在危机前就已积累的内在失衡?对这一问题的解答，有助于我们更为全面地了解金融危机的成因以及隐藏于贸易体系中的金融危机预警信号。文章利用贸易网络分析等方法，探讨了贸易网络演化对金融危机的早期预警作用，以及这一预警作用产生的根源，从而揭示了贸易网络演化与金融危机之间的深层关系。研究发现：（1）某些贸易网络结构的变化确实是金融危机的早期信号，而且这种变化也是影响危机的重要因素。（2）贸易网络演化对金融危机的预警作用与贸易收益不平衡有关，而失衡风险的不断累积最终会导向金融危机。（3）金融危机周期与重要贸易体之间的收益失衡程度存在对应关系，并且金融危机对具有劣势收益的贸易体更易造成冲击。上述结论说明，分析贸易网络结构的变化可以成为金融危机预警的新工具，且其变化所反映的贸易失衡也为预判国际贸易发展趋势以及优化贸易政策提供了参考。
高阶结关系、贸易网络演化与金融危机
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引用本文
魏彦杰, 钟娟, 邢孝兵. 高阶结关系、贸易网络演化与金融危机[J]. 财经研究, 2017, 43(10): 109–121.
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