4147 
2351就业是最基本的民生，农民工的高质量充分就业是城乡融合发展与全体人民共同富裕的重要内容，而农民工作为弱势群体，突发性冲击会对其就业产生巨大的影响。文章基于“突发性冲击−农民工流动−农业再就业”的逻辑框架，利用中国家庭追踪调查数据，采用广义双重差分模型论证了突发公共卫生事件对农民工的工资收入、就业地点以及农业就业的冲击效应。研究发现：在重大突发公共卫生事件冲击下，劳动力供需变化与市场配置效率下降加大了农民工工资下行压力，带来了不利的收入效应；加之不确定性风险较高，农民工外出务工的机会成本增大，县域内就业增加，农民工流动性下降；由于非农就业机会有限，农民工利用农业的劳动力蓄水池功能进行农业再就业，获得暂时的就业保障以抵御公共卫生风险。此外，城市的失业效应与劳动者的替代效应是突发性冲击影响农民工就业选择的潜在机制。据此，文章认为将更多农民工纳入就业保障体系，大力发展县域经济，推动农业现代化与农村产业融合，以及通过技能培训等加强对弱势农民工群体的救助和支持是保障农民工生计、提升农民工就业质量的重要途径。
突发公共卫生事件、农民工流动与农业蓄水池*——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的微观证据
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引用本文
张锦华, 刘小瑜, 陈博欧. 突发公共卫生事件、农民工流动与农业蓄水池*——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的微观证据[J]. 财经研究, 2023, 49(8): 64-78.
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